So how ugly would it get if THIS happened on Election Day
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I think either way, Romney will be president-elect. That debate really effected The President
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poindexter2 wrote: »I think either way, Romney will be president-elect. That debate really effected The President
lol those fake ass polls and the news really got yall ?
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waterproof wrote: »poindexter2 wrote: »I think either way, Romney will be president-elect. That debate really effected The President
lol those fake ass polls and the news really got yall ?
What makes you think these polls are fake? The avg poll has Obama losing now. -
kingblaze84 wrote: »waterproof wrote: »poindexter2 wrote: »I think either way, Romney will be president-elect. That debate really effected The President
lol those fake ass polls and the news really got yall ?
What makes you think these polls are fake? The avg poll has Obama losing now.
Because it don't mean ? , people putting a spin on ? , i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE
these people got to make money and will spin this ? to make it seem like Romeny is winning ? bythe way they spiing Florida you think he winning by 5 points, Obama is down 1 and the machine on the ground and turning out records number, and the republicans was scared as ? out his ground game that's why they wanted to changed and stop early voting
i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE......here you go
With the election only ten days away, many Americans are looking to presidential polls as a means for predicting the outcome of the election and possibly making the decision to vote for one candidate over the other.
Many voters recognize that the state they reside in will go to one candidate over the other regardless of their vote, but people still vote for the opposing candidate. Americans understand that the outcome of the election is determined by the Electoral College, not a popular vote.
This year, political observers are watching eleven states considered toss-ups or swing states. These are states that could go to either candidate. According to Real Clear Politics these swing states and their electoral votes include: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10).
Mitt Romney has a one point lead in the national aggregated presidential polls. Yet, the slight lead in the popular vote is not reflected in his hunt for 270 electoral votes. Obama has a ten electoral vote lead regardless of national presidential poll, largely due to carrying high electoral vote races like California (55), and New York (29). Based on likely outcomes in thirty-nine other states, Romney has 191 electoral votes and Obama has 201, with 146 up for grabs.
Voters looking to understand presidential polls and their outcome should focus on the toss-up states as indicators of the winner. Below are the swing states according to Real Clear Politics and the most recent polling in each state.
State
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Total Electoral Votes
Obama (201)
47.8 Colorado (9)
47.1 Florida (29)
49.0 Iowa (6)
48.8 Michigan (16)
49.7 Nevada (6)
48.3 New Hampshire (4)
46.5 North Carolina (15)
48.0 Ohio (18)
50.0 Pennsylvania (20)
46.8 Virginia (13)
49.3 Wisconsin (10)
80
Romney (191)
47.8 Colorado (9)
48.9 Florida (29)
46.7 Iowa (6)
44.8 Michigan (16)
47.2 Nevada (6)
47.2 New Hampshire (4)
50.3 North Carolina (15)
45.7 Ohio (18)
45.2 Pennsylvania (20)
48.0 Virginia (13)
47.0 Wisconsin (10)
57
Obama is pulling more electoral votes from the toss-up states regardless of Romney leading in Florida. Colorado will be the target of pushes from both campaigns as they’re locked in a virtual tie.
If the election was decided today, based on these numbers, Barack Obama would win with 281 electoral votes with Romney trailing at 248.
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WashPost poll: Obama 51, Romney 47 in Virginia
Numbers that are important if true from the Washington Post, which shows President Obama getting 51 percent to Mitt Romney's 47 percent in Virginia:
Unlike in national polls, Obama still has an edge when Virginia voters are asked who better understands their financial problems, and he has not fallen behind a surging Romney on the question of who would better handle the national economy. Nor has Obama lost significant ground among self-identified independents in Virginia, as he has nationally.
The results underscore the importance of swing states like Virginia, with its 13 electoral votes, as both campaigns seek to secure a path to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
Perhaps the poll’s most striking finding is how many voters the two campaigns have contacted in Virginia this fall. A staggering 44 percent of likely voters polled say they’ve been contacted by the Obama campaign, 41 percent say the same of Romney’s. More than one in four of have heard from both campaigns.
That last point is one that may be subject to debate, since some voters may not be differentiating between hearing from the Romney campaign as opposed to the super PACs and outside groups supporting him, but you get the idea.
Regardless, if Obama has solidified a lead that way in a state that has been tied - and where Romney is being forced to forgo a day tomorrow thanks to Hurricane Sandy - it will make for an interesting next 10 days -
waterproof wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »waterproof wrote: »poindexter2 wrote: »I think either way, Romney will be president-elect. That debate really effected The President
lol those fake ass polls and the news really got yall ?
What makes you think these polls are fake? The avg poll has Obama losing now.
Because it don't mean ? , people putting a spin on ? , i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE
these people got to make money and will spin this ? to make it seem like Romeny is winning ? bythe way they spiing Florida you think he winning by 5 points, Obama is down 1 and the machine on the ground and turning out records number, and the republicans was scared as ? out his ground game that's why they wanted to changed and stop early voting
i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE......here you go
With the election only ten days away, many Americans are looking to presidential polls as a means for predicting the outcome of the election and possibly making the decision to vote for one candidate over the other.
Many voters recognize that the state they reside in will go to one candidate over the other regardless of their vote, but people still vote for the opposing candidate. Americans understand that the outcome of the election is determined by the Electoral College, not a popular vote.
This year, political observers are watching eleven states considered toss-ups or swing states. These are states that could go to either candidate. According to Real Clear Politics these swing states and their electoral votes include: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10).
Mitt Romney has a one point lead in the national aggregated presidential polls. Yet, the slight lead in the popular vote is not reflected in his hunt for 270 electoral votes. Obama has a ten electoral vote lead regardless of national presidential poll, largely due to carrying high electoral vote races like California (55), and New York (29). Based on likely outcomes in thirty-nine other states, Romney has 191 electoral votes and Obama has 201, with 146 up for grabs.
Voters looking to understand presidential polls and their outcome should focus on the toss-up states as indicators of the winner. Below are the swing states according to Real Clear Politics and the most recent polling in each state.
State
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Total Electoral Votes
Obama (201)
47.8 Colorado (9)
47.1 Florida (29)
49.0 Iowa (6)
48.8 Michigan (16)
49.7 Nevada (6)
48.3 New Hampshire (4)
46.5 North Carolina (15)
48.0 Ohio (18)
50.0 Pennsylvania (20)
46.8 Virginia (13)
49.3 Wisconsin (10)
80
Romney (191)
47.8 Colorado (9)
48.9 Florida (29)
46.7 Iowa (6)
44.8 Michigan (16)
47.2 Nevada (6)
47.2 New Hampshire (4)
50.3 North Carolina (15)
45.7 Ohio (18)
45.2 Pennsylvania (20)
48.0 Virginia (13)
47.0 Wisconsin (10)
57
Obama is pulling more electoral votes from the toss-up states regardless of Romney leading in Florida. Colorado will be the target of pushes from both campaigns as they’re locked in a virtual tie.
If the election was decided today, based on these numbers, Barack Obama would win with 281 electoral votes with Romney trailing at 248.
I see what you're saying, but if the avg national poll has Romney on top, that still means trouble. Obama has an advantage in electoral math true, but that's only because so many swing states are toss ups right now. If those swing states go Romney's way, it's over. It's all going to depend on turnout in the end, whichever base is more motivated will win. If the polls are right though, then it looks like Romney's base is more motivated. Many Obama fans are disillusioned and won't bother to vote. I probably am wrong, but I really think Romney is gonna win. -
kingblaze84 wrote: »waterproof wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »waterproof wrote: »poindexter2 wrote: »I think either way, Romney will be president-elect. That debate really effected The President
lol those fake ass polls and the news really got yall ?
What makes you think these polls are fake? The avg poll has Obama losing now.
Because it don't mean ? , people putting a spin on ? , i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE
these people got to make money and will spin this ? to make it seem like Romeny is winning ? bythe way they spiing Florida you think he winning by 5 points, Obama is down 1 and the machine on the ground and turning out records number, and the republicans was scared as ? out his ground game that's why they wanted to changed and stop early voting
i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE......here you go
With the election only ten days away, many Americans are looking to presidential polls as a means for predicting the outcome of the election and possibly making the decision to vote for one candidate over the other.
Many voters recognize that the state they reside in will go to one candidate over the other regardless of their vote, but people still vote for the opposing candidate. Americans understand that the outcome of the election is determined by the Electoral College, not a popular vote.
This year, political observers are watching eleven states considered toss-ups or swing states. These are states that could go to either candidate. According to Real Clear Politics these swing states and their electoral votes include: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10).
Mitt Romney has a one point lead in the national aggregated presidential polls. Yet, the slight lead in the popular vote is not reflected in his hunt for 270 electoral votes. Obama has a ten electoral vote lead regardless of national presidential poll, largely due to carrying high electoral vote races like California (55), and New York (29). Based on likely outcomes in thirty-nine other states, Romney has 191 electoral votes and Obama has 201, with 146 up for grabs.
Voters looking to understand presidential polls and their outcome should focus on the toss-up states as indicators of the winner. Below are the swing states according to Real Clear Politics and the most recent polling in each state.
State
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)
Total Electoral Votes
Obama (201)
47.8 Colorado (9)
47.1 Florida (29)
49.0 Iowa (6)
48.8 Michigan (16)
49.7 Nevada (6)
48.3 New Hampshire (4)
46.5 North Carolina (15)
48.0 Ohio (18)
50.0 Pennsylvania (20)
46.8 Virginia (13)
49.3 Wisconsin (10)
80
Romney (191)
47.8 Colorado (9)
48.9 Florida (29)
46.7 Iowa (6)
44.8 Michigan (16)
47.2 Nevada (6)
47.2 New Hampshire (4)
50.3 North Carolina (15)
45.7 Ohio (18)
45.2 Pennsylvania (20)
48.0 Virginia (13)
47.0 Wisconsin (10)
57
Obama is pulling more electoral votes from the toss-up states regardless of Romney leading in Florida. Colorado will be the target of pushes from both campaigns as they’re locked in a virtual tie.
If the election was decided today, based on these numbers, Barack Obama would win with 281 electoral votes with Romney trailing at 248.
I see what you're saying, but if the avg national poll has Romney on top, that still means trouble. Obama has an advantage in electoral math true, but that's only because so many swing states are toss ups right now. If those swing states go Romney's way, it's over. It's all going to depend on turnout in the end, whichever base is more motivated will win. If the polls are right though, then it looks like Romney's base is more motivated. Many Obama fans are disillusioned and won't bother to vote. I probably am wrong, but I really think Romney is gonna win.
what you see is what you going to see, the swing states is damn near a wrap Obama is either extending his lead, maintaining it, and now colorado is a tie and obama is creeping back in florida, now Obama is taking the lead again in Virgina, these are the states that Romeny needs and he knows it. Obama need to hold Ohio and it's a wrap
what you looking at is what happen in 2000 election, GORE won the Popular vote but lost the electoral vote to Bush it's going to be the same. Romeny MIGHT win the Popular and Obama got the electoral college.....it's a wrap it's over.
most swing STATES ARE NOT A TOSS UP, NC that's Romeny, Virginia just went back in Obama corner, It's FL and Colorado that is still a toss up.
you is damn crazy to think Obama voters is disillusioned and wont bother to vote, check this out even in red state alabama it was one of the highest turn out for black voters, and you got to cut out fox news and that other ? , pay what's happening on tv like PBS new hour and ground news on twitter and other outlets, obama voters are out and winning the early votes by 40-60%, all across the nation in early voting states obama machine on the ground is turning out voters.
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it should be like boxing...if it ends in a draw the title does not change hands
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mark my word next week yall going to see a mighty shift enjoy the ride, some racist ass ? is about to happen because the wind is about to shift
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Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right
By NATE SILVER
The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. The intuition behind this ought to be very simple: Mr. Obama is maintaining leads in the polls in Ohio and other states that are sufficient for him to win 270 electoral votes.
Friday featured a large volume of swing state polling, including three polls of Ohio, each of which showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins ranging from two to four percentage points.
Between Ohio and the other battleground states, Mr. Obama held leads in 11 polls on Friday, against four leads for Mitt Romney’s and two ties. Mr. Romney’s leads came in North Carolina and Florida, two states where the FiveThirtyEight forecast already had him favored.
To the extent that there was a trend in the state polls, it was slightly favorable for Mr. Obama. Among the eight polls that had previously published numbers after the first presidential debate in Denver, Mr. Obama gained about one percentage point, on average.
Mr. Romney made gains in four of the five polls that had last surveyed the race before Denver. Nevertheless, his average gain in the polls – 2.4 percentage points – was less than the 4-point bounce he was seeing in the immediate aftermath of the Denver debate. This suggests that Mr. Romney’s bounce has receded some since his post-Denver peak.
The national polls out on Friday were not terribly newsworthy. Mr. Obama had a miniscule lead of 0.2 points between the eight national tracking polls that were published, reversing an equally small 0.2-point advantage for Mr. Romney in the same surveys on Thursday.
You can see here my thoughts on reconciling the differences between state and national polls. They may be reflective of a potential split outcome between the popular vote and the Electoral College, but there are other plausible hypotheses as well. Specifically, it could be that the national polls slightly underrate Mr. Obama’s position, that the state polls slightly overrate it, or both.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Mr. Obama leading the popular vote along with the Electoral College, because it uses both state and national polls to calibrate its estimate of where the vote stands. Also, however, Mr. Obama’s state polls were adjusted slightly downward because his national polls remain middling.
Still, our state-by-state forecasts are extremely similar to those issued by our competitors. For example, we had Mr. Obama projected to win Ohio by 2.4 percentage points as of Friday. That compares to a 2.3 percentage-point lead for Mr. Obama in the Real Clear Politics average of Ohio polls, a 2.9-point advantage for him in the Huffington Post Pollster model, and a 2.7-point edge for him according to Talking Points Memo’s Poll Tracker.
How often does a lead of two or three points in the polling average, with 10 days to go until the election, translate into a victory in the state?
This is the sort of question that the FiveThirtyEight forecast is designed to address. But a simpler method is to just look at what happened when candidates held similar advantages in the past.
In the table that follows, I have attempted to recreate a simple polling average for competitive states in past elections, using about the same rules that Real Clear Politics applies.
In particular, I’ve looked at all states in our database in which there were at least three distinct polling firms that conducted surveys in the window between 10 days and three weeks before the election. Like Real Clear Politics, I used only the most recent poll (the one closest to the 10-day cutoff) if the polling firm surveyed the state multiple times during this period. I used the version of the poll among likely voters if it was available, defaulting to registered voter numbers otherwise.
In the table, I’ve listed all cases in which the race was within the single digits in the polling average. If you focus on those cases where a candidate held a lead of two to three percentage points, he won the state in all six out of six cases, although the sample size was small.
Historically, this two- to three-point range has been something of an inflection point. Poll leads of 1.5 percentage points or less have been very tenuous and have not conveyed much advantage.
On the other hand, there was not a single instance in the database where a candidate lost a state when he held a lead of more than 3.5 points in the polling average at this point in time. (Bill Clinton, in 1992, lost Texas despite leading George H.W. Bush there by that margin.)
It is possible to generalize these findings by means of a probit regression model, where the independent variable is the candidate’s lead in the polling average and the dependent one is whether he won or lost the state.
That analysis implies that a lead of 2.4 percent in the polling average (Mr. Obama’s current edge in Ohio in the FiveThirtyEight model) would translate to a win in the state 82 percent of the time. This percentage is similar to, but slightly higher than, the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which gave Mr. Obama a 76 percent chance of winning Ohio as of Friday.
It is important to emphasize that this analysis covers cases in which there were at least three distinct polling firms active in a state; you will find more frequent misses in cases where there were just one or two polls.
In Ohio, however, there are not just three polls: roughly a dozen polling firms, rather, have surveyed the state over the past 10 days.
There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich.
Instead, the biggest upsets in states with at least five polls in the average came in 2000, when George W. Bush beat Al Gore in Florida, and in 2008, when John McCain beat Mr. Obama in Missouri. Mr. Obama and Mr. Gore had held leads of 1.3 percentage points in the polling averages of those states.
If you look at the actual track record of state polling averages, it may even seem as though the FiveThirtyEight forecast is being conservative in giving Mr. Obama “only” a 76 percent chance of winning Ohio. I do not necessarily think that is the case.
The state-by-state polling averages have performed very well in recent years, but that is not likely to have been the case in, for example, 1980, when Ronald Reagan substantially beat his polls on Election Day. Years like 1980 are not represented very well in the tables above, because there were few states with rich polling that year. But they are considered by the FiveThirtyEight model, which calibrates its estimates of uncertainty based on the performance of state and national polls dating back to 1968.
Still, it is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election. -
waterproof wrote: »
what you see is what you going to see, the swing states is damn near a wrap Obama is either extending his lead, maintaing it, and now colorado is a tie and obama is creeping back in florida, now Obama is taking the lead again in Virgina, these are the states that Romeny needs and he knows it. Obama need to hold Ohio and it's a wrap/
This is what I've been saying.
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waterproof wrote: »
what you see is what you going to see, the swing states is damn near a wrap Obama is either extending his lead, maintaing it, and now colorado is a tie and obama is creeping back in florida, now Obama is taking the lead again in Virgina, these are the states that Romeny needs and he knows it. Obama need to hold Ohio and it's a wrap/
This is what I've been saying.
word up, look I am an Independent my voting record can speak for itself.....i voted for a green party, republican, Democrat, Liberterian before in local, county and statewide positions, but if Romeny would of been his self had a back bone and be the Moderate that he was, there was a 55% chance he would of have my vote, but this dude is a snake and a lie, coward and have no ? and i cant respect a man like that.
But on the real i was like oh ? it's a wrap for Hussien watching the damn news and the rightwing spin machine and CNN who used to be down the middle now on some tilt right ? now to get some damn viewers, i had to turn that ? off and go to source who is not spinning ? , then i got the truth, it's a wrap the election is over -
Romney was never a moderate. That's a myth. He got his vetoes overturned most of the time and that's how Massachusetts got most of it's moderate to liberal legislation enacted. Romney was hard core conservative as governor on most social issues. All the good that occurred in his state was done by the previous governor. The flip flop turn centrist ? he pulled in the debates is the same thing he did with Kennedy and when he ran for Governor. Attempting to co-op his opponents position to confuse the electorate. Kennedy called him out on it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9IJUkYUbvI -
NEW POLL DATA FROM REAL CLEAR POLITIC'S even thoug Colorado is a tie now they still as of right now give it to Romeny and Virgina to even thoug Obama just took the lead today according to ABC poll
RCP Poll Average
Electoral Votes
Colo.
47.8% OBAMA
47.8% ROMENY
Fla.
47.1% OBAMA
48.9% ROMENY
Iowa
49.0% OBAMA
46.7% ROMENY
Nev.
50.0% OBAMA
47.6% ROMENY
N.H.
48.6% OBAMA
47.2% ROMENY
N.C.
46.5% OBAMA
50.3% ROMNEY
Ohio
48.0% OBAMA
45.7% ROMENY
Va.
47.8% OBAMA
47.8% ROMNEY
Wis.
49.3% OBAMA
47.0% ROMENY
Swing-State Votes
44 OBAMA (REMEMBER they still put Colorado in Romeny corner even though it's tied and Virgina, according to a new Poll Obama is up by 51-47)
66 ROMENY
Leaning/Likely State Votes
237 OBAMA
191 ROMENY
Total Overall Votes
281 OBAMA
257 ROMENY
YOU HEAR IT HERE FIRST OBAMA is going to get VA, FL AND COLORADO -
waterproof wrote: »NEW POLL DATA FROM REAL CLEAR POLITIC'S even thoug Colorado is a tie now they still as of right now give it to Romeny and Virgina to even thoug Obama just took the lead today according to ABC poll
RCP Poll Average
Electoral Votes
Colo.
47.8% OBAMA
47.8% ROMENY
Fla.
47.1% OBAMA
48.9% ROMENY
Iowa
49.0% OBAMA
46.7% ROMENY
Nev.
50.0% OBAMA
47.6% ROMENY
N.H.
48.6% OBAMA
47.2% ROMENY
N.C.
46.5% OBAMA
50.3% ROMNEY
Ohio
48.0% OBAMA
45.7% ROMENY
Va.
47.8% OBAMA
47.8% ROMNEY
Wis.
49.3% OBAMA
47.0% ROMENY
Swing-State Votes
44 OBAMA (REMEMBER they still put Colorado in Romeny corner even though it's tied and Virgina, according to a new Poll Obama is up by 51-47)
66 ROMENY
Leaning/Likely State Votes
237 OBAMA
191 ROMENY
Total Overall Votes
281 OBAMA
257 ROMENY
YOU HEAR IT HERE FIRST OBAMA is going to get VA, FL AND COLORADO
Interesting, I'm gonna start paying more attention to these state polls instead of the national ones, although Romney has closed the gap a lot in the last few weeks -
waterproof wrote: »poindexter2 wrote: »I think either way, Romney will be president-elect. That debate really effected The President
lol those fake ass polls and the news really got yall ?
who said anything about polls? you are saying don't believe in polls, but you're the one posting poll numbers dude lol -
kingblaze84 wrote: »Obama is losing pretty bad in polls now.....
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx
That poll is garbage...every other site I've been to has Obama in the lead as of now. -
I doubt that tie would happen on election night I see CO & NV staying blue but you can give Romney Florida unless people just drastically change their minds on election day.
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poindexter2 wrote: »waterproof wrote: »poindexter2 wrote: »I think either way, Romney will be president-elect. That debate really effected The President
lol those fake ass polls and the news really got yall ?
who said anything about polls? you are saying don't believe in polls, but you're the one posting poll numbers dude lol
NO you are wrong my friend (No Mc'cain) i said i don't take any stock in the national polls when come to the president because the state Polls tells the real and Rassusem (sp) is a right leaning poll and always get their ? wrong.
A new National Poll have Obama in the lead, but still i go with the state Polls, because it tells the real
Obama at 49 percent, Romney 46 percent nine days before election: Reuters/Ipsos poll
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama has extended his narrow lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney among likely voters in a race that remains statistically tied nine days before the election, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Sunday.
Obama has a 49 percent to 46 percent edge over Romney, marking a 1 point increase from Saturday but still within the daily online survey's 4 percentage-point credibility interval for likely voters.
Swings could be possible in the remaining days of the campaign, however. Fifteen percent of registered voters say they could still change their minds and vote for a different candidate.
The precision of Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for likely voters.
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Maybe Obama will win election day, I guess his good debate performances lately helped out
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October 28, 2012
1 point race in Florida
PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49/48, flipping the numbers from each of our last two polls of the state which found Romney leading by a point. Every poll PPP has conducted in the state since the first Presidential debate has found a one point race.
Obama's leading in Florida based on his strength with women (54/45), African Americans (89/10), and voters under 30 (55/39). Romney is strong with men (53/43), whites (57/39), and seniors (53/46). Romney also has narrow advantages with Hispanics (54/46) and independents (50/43).
Floridians actually trust Romney over Obama to deal both with the economy (50/46) and foreign policy (49/48) so something else is driving Obama's razor thin lead in the state. When asked to consider who won the debates as a whole voters pick Romney by a 47/46 margin, indicating that Obama's wins in the last two debates mostly made up for his overwhelming loss in the first one.
In Florida's Senate race incumbent Bill Nelson looks to have a pretty commanding lead heading into the final week of the campaign, 50/42 over Republican foe Connie Mack IV. Nelson's approval rating is on positive ground for the first time in quite a while at 44/41. Mack continues to be quite an unpopular candidate with only 36% of voters rating him favorably to 46% with a negative one. Nelson is winning independent voters 51/36 even as Obama is simultaneously losing them, and he's also taking 17% of the Republican vote.
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Obama leads 51-47 in Ohio
PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago.
It's starting to look like Obama might have turned the corner with his wins in the second and third debates. When asked who they think won the debates as a whole Obama wins out 45/43, suggesting he really fixed his problems from the first debate with the second two. Obama's approval is on positive ground at 51/48, while Romney's favorability is in negative territory at 47/51. Ohioans trust Obama over Romney on both the economy (52/46) and foreign policy (54/44).
Obama's built up a big lead among early voters in the state. 36% say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 63/36 margin. Romney's up 53/45 with those yet to vote.
The main shift from a week ago is Democrats further unifying around Obama as the election nears. Last week he led 86/14 with them in the state and now he's pushed that up further to 88/10. Romney continues to lead with independents, 50/46, but that's down a tick from 49/42 last week.
Obama's lead in Ohio comes thanks to big advantages among women (55/43), African Americans (86/12), and young voters (60/36). Romney's winning with men (52/46), whites (52/46), and seniors (54/45) but he would need to win those groups, particularly whites and men, by considerably wider margins if he was going to take the state.
The Senate race really appears to be getting away from Josh Mandel in the closing stages. Sherrod Brown's opened up a 53/42 lead. Brown's winning independents 48/44 even as Obama loses them, and he has 89% of Democrats lined up behind him while only 81% of Republicans are committed to Mandel. Brown's approval is on slightly positive ground at 47/44, while Mandel continues to be very unpopular with only 38% of voters seeing him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. -
Obama leads narrowly in New Hampshire
PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds Barack Obama with a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in the state, 49/47. That represents a three point improvement for Obama from a week ago when he had trailed 49/48.
Granite State voters narrowly approve of the job Obama's doing, 49/48. They're not terribly fond of Romney with 47% of voters rating him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. They trust Romney more than Obama by a 49/47 margin on the economy, but they trust Obama over Romney by a 51/46 spread on foreign policy. New Hampshire voters mostly think Obama's victories in the last two debates equaled out Romney's big win the first debate- asked to say who was the winner of the debates as a whole Romney wins out just narrowly, 46/43.
Women are the key group keeping Obama ahead in New Hampshire. He has a 57/39 advantage with them that's just enough to make up for his trailing by a 56/39 margin with men. Romney has a 47/45 advantage with independents, but Obama's overcoming that by winning over slightly more Republican voters (9%) than Romney is Democrats (6%).
In the Governor's race Democrat Maggie Hassan continues to be the favorite over Republican foe Ovide Lamontagne, leading 48/44. Hassan has considerably better favorability numbers (46/40) than Lamontagne who is quite unpopular with only 41% of voters rating him positively to 51% with a negative opinion. -
you know what the problem with your "who cares about polls, ELECTORAL COLLEGE" is? everything you're posting is still dependent on polls.waterproof wrote: »lol those fake ass polls and the news really got yall ? ... Because it don't mean ? , people putting a spin on ? , i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE
uh... again, this was your quote: "Because it don't mean ? , people putting a spin on ? , i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE"waterproof wrote: »NO you are wrong my friend (No Mc'cain) i said i don't take any stock in the national polls when come to the president because the state Polls tells the real and Rassusem (sp) is a right leaning poll and always get their ? wrong.
i mean, it's fair to say state polls in battleground states are way more important than averaging national polls, but let's not pretend state polls aren't polls, now -
you know what the problem with your "who cares about polls, ELECTORAL COLLEGE" is? everything you're posting is still dependent on polls.waterproof wrote: »lol those fake ass polls and the news really got yall ? ... Because it don't mean ? , people putting a spin on ? , i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE
uh... again, this was your quote: "Because it don't mean ? , people putting a spin on ? , i deal with the ELECTORAL COLLEGE"waterproof wrote: »NO you are wrong my friend (No Mc'cain) i said i don't take any stock in the national polls when come to the president because the state Polls tells the real and Rassusem (sp) is a right leaning poll and always get their ? wrong.
i mean, it's fair to say state polls in battleground states are way more important than averaging national polls, but let's not pretend state polls aren't polls, now
TOUCHE, then let me make more self a little clearer, I take no stocks In National Poll average concerning the race for the White House...I find that the State Polls and The Electoral College is a better indicator
