So how ugly would it get if THIS happened on Election Day
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ALRIGHT I GUESS THIS IS GOING TO BE THE NATIONAL/STATE POLL THREAD so i am going to keep updating this thread with updated POLLS from different polls, some lean right some lean left.
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Battleground Tracking Poll: President Obama retakes lead
MARION, Ohio — With eight days to go until the election, President Barack Obama has recaptured a narrow national lead over Mitt Romney, riding increased support from women and an edge in early voting.
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percentage point, 49 percent to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.
Obama leads by 8 points among those who have already voted, 53 percent to 45 percent. These early voters represent 15 percent of the electorate, with many more expected to vote in the next few days — though Hurricane Sandy could change that.
But the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared with 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent.
By any measure, the race is neck and neck: 43 percent say they will “definitely” vote Romney, compared with 42 percent who say the same of the president.
On the generic congressional ballot, Republicans lead Democrats, 46 percent to 45 percent, after trailing slightly for much of the fall.
Obama leads among women by 11 points, 54 percent to 43 percent. The gap had narrowed to 6 points a week ago, but much of that survey was conducted before the GOP nominee’s comment at the second debate that he had reviewed “binders full of women” as part of a gender diversity effort as Massachusetts governor. Obama and his allies have also been hitting full swing at Romney as an enemy of women’s rights on abortion and contraception in advertising and speeches.
The president is now closer in standing to where he’s been the past few months, and the swing is due to female support. On every issue and question of character, women now favor Obama over Romney.
Men, meanwhile, support Romney over Obama by 12 points, 55 percent to 43 percent.
“The women have come back, and they look pretty locked in,” said Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster who helped conduct the bipartisan poll. “The key is to win the women by as much as you’re losing the men by.”
Obama enters the final full week of the campaign with a 50 percent job approval rating, 51 percent personal favorability rating and 54 percent expecting him to win regardless of whom they are supporting.
“You’ve got a majority now kind of lining up,” Lake said Sunday. “A majority is still a majority.”
Romney, though, is again winning independents. Driven largely by the economy, the Republican now leads with this set of swing voters by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent.
And the economy threatens to derail the president as much as ever: 54 percent overall disapprove of how he’s handled the most overwhelmingly important issue in the campaign. That’s the highest level since August. Nearly six in 10 disapprove of how the president is handling the budget and spending. And 56 percent believe the country is on the wrong track — 48 percent strongly so.
Romney is favored by 5 points, 51 percent to 46 percent, both on the questions of which candidate will better grow the economy and create more jobs. Significantly more strongly disapprove of his job performance, 44 percent, than strongly approve, 37 percent.
Among those who describe pocketbook issues as their top concern, which is 7 in 10 voters, Romney leads 56 percent to 41 percent.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group, who helped conduct the poll, said the president turns some voters off when he talks about good economic news because there is a disconnect between what they’re experiencing and what he’s describing. He warns that a bad jobs report Friday could be a game-changer.
Goeas exuded confidence because of Romney’s sizable intensity edge.
“The closer we get to the election, the Democrats don’t appear [to be] offsetting our intensity with their ground game,” he said.
Lake acknowledges that it is “a real threat,” which puts an added imperative on turning out young, single and Latino voters.
Romney’s personal favorability has also continued to grow in the wake of the debates. He’s now viewed positively by 52 percent of respondents, up from 47 percent at the start of the month. Only 43 percent view him unfavorably, the lowest number since the primaries.
While Obama’s overall favorability is roughly the same, 51 percent, he finds himself underwater in the suburbs. Only 44 percent of suburban voters view Obama positively, compared with 54 percent who see him unfavorably. It’s a significantly bigger spread in rural America, but it’s offset by his 65 percent favorability in urban areas.
Both sides are spinning early vote numbers so hard that it’s hard to know the truth, and each party’s strength differs by state.
Goeas notes that this same poll exactly four years ago showed Obama up by 15 percent in the early vote, nearly twice his current edge of 8 points. He said more of the Obama voters are high propensity voters. But senior Obama campaign officials argue that those who have voted early are the hardest to turn out and didn’t vote in the 2010 elections.
“The reason why you saw the intensity pop toward the Republicans into the double digits this week is because [Democrats are] taking away their high intensity voters [through early voting],” Goeas said. “What we’re seeing in the data is indicative of that cannibalization.”
Lake said Democrats clearly have the edge on early voting, but she puts more credence in actual numbers from the states.
“There are still lots of votes for him to go get so the turnout operation on Election Day is going to be very, very important,” she said. “It’s the ground game on both sides.”
Obama maintained the 9-point foreign policy advantage he carried into the third and final debate last Monday, which focused on the subject. Asked which candidate has a better foreign policy, Obama is ahead 52 percent to 43 percent.
That debate in Florida also helped the president retake the lead on which candidate is the stronger leader, 49 percent to 46 percent, a 4-point swing his direction from last week. Obama also grew his lead on the question of who “shares your values” from 2 points to 3 points.
Obama retains an edge on other substantive issues. He’s up 2 points on which candidate has the better tax policy, 6 points on who is better for Medicare and 13 points on who stands up more for the middle class.
Romney continues to lead by 4 points on which of the two candidates can best get things done. The former governor spent Sunday on the campaign trail in Ohio trying to convert this advantage into an appeal to independents, highlighting how closely he worked with the opposition party in Massachusetts and noting that Paul Ryan has worked with Democrats in Congress.
“Romney has the advantage on the pocketbook issues and Obama has the advantage on more abstract issues,” Goeas said. “The final days of the campaign will most likely feature both candidates making a strong case about these individual strengths. The difference, as has been the case most of the fall campaign, will be that Romney will be focusing on issues that are the top concerns of most voters.”
The Battleground tracking poll will be performed each week and the results released each Monday through Election Day.
The POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground poll, conducted by The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters from Oct. 22 to 25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82986_Page3.html#ixzz2AiwoSbBC -
Generic Congressional Vote
Republican 46%
Democrat 45%
Undecided 9% POLITICO/George Washington University10/22/2012-10/25/20121000 likely voters
National '12 President General Election
Barack Obama 49%
Mitt Romney 48%
Undecided 3% POLITICO/George Washington University10/22/2012-10/25/20121000 likely voters
National '12 President General Election
Mitt Romney 49%
Barack Obama 48%
Neither 1%
No opinion 1%
Other 1% Washington Post-ABC News10/24/2012-10/27/20121,278 likely voters
National '12 President General Election
Barack Obama 47%
Mitt Romney 47%
Other/Don't know 6% Pew Research Center10/24/2012-10/28/20121495 likely voters
Colorado '12 Presidential General Election
Mitt Romney 48%
Barack Obama 47%
Undecided 4%
Other 1% American Research Group, Inc.10/25/2012-10/28/2012600 likely voters
Florida '12 Presidential General Election
Mitt Romney 50%
Barack Obama 49%
Neither 1% CNN/ORC International10/25/2012-10/28/2012770 likely voters -
Obama is losing in Ohio and Virginia according to this poll.....
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president -
kingblaze84 wrote: »Obama is losing in Ohio and Virginia according to this poll.....
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president
yeah thats the RASMUSSEN POLL they are a right wing leaning poll and that's why they always on FOX NEWS, nate silver an independent pollster talked about Rasmussen
Rasmussen and Bias
After the 2010 elections, the New York Times statistics wizard, Nate Silver, analyzed the polls produced by various polling organizations, including Rasmussen Reports, which is the house pollster for Fox News. Silver's analysis covered only polls taken during the final three weeks of the campaign and compared them to the actual election results. For polls taken much earlier, say in June, no one knows what the true sentiment of the electorate was, so there is no way to tell if the polls were accurate or not. Also, any pollster deliberately falsifying the results for partisan advantage would be advised to reduce the bias as the election neared. After all, no one can tell if a June poll is accurate but everyone can tell if a poll released the day before the election is accurate.
Silver analyzed 105 polls released by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, for Senate and gubernatorial races in numerous states across the country. The bottom line is that on average, Rasmussen's polls were off by 5.8% with a bias of 3.9% in favor of the Republican candidates.
There is much to criticize about Rasmussen's methods. All polls are conducted within a 4-hour window, the person who answers the phone (even a child) is sampled, phones that are not answered are not called back, and much more. All of Rasmussen's polls are done by computer; live interviewers are never used. However, other firms that do robopolling such as SurveyUSA and PPP get much more accurate results with no bias, so the problem is not the robopolling per se.
Just to look at one methodological issue, if no one answers the phone, Rasmussen picks a different random phone number instead of calling back two, three, four or more times as other pollsters do. Why does this matter? Because 20-somethings (who skew Democratic) are often out, whereas 60-somethings (who skew Republican) are often in. By not being persistent in finally getting through to a randomly chosen phone number, the sample is inherently biased towards Republicans because they are easier to reach. This may not have been intentional but it is understandable if you want to finish your survey in 4 hours. Nevertheless, cutting corners in the name of speed and cost don't improve accuracy.
Unlike companies like Strategic Vision, which most likely made up the data (but not very well) and also Research 2000, which probably did as well, no one is suggesting that Rasmussen is making up numbers without actually doing polling. There are many reports of people called by Rasmussen. The problem with Rasmussen is most likely its model of the electorate. Very briefly, if a pollster believes that in a certain state, say, 40% of the voters are Republicans and the actual survey just happens to turn up 35% Republicans, each Republican interviewed will be given a weight of 40/35 to correct for the undersampling of Republicans. All pollsters do this to correct for under- or oversampling by party, gender, age, race, income, and other factors. This is not only legitimate, but necessary with the small samples all the pollsters use. The issue here is whether Rasmussen's model of the electorate has more Republicans in it than in reality there are (not to mention whether this is accidental or deliberate).
You can read more about Silver's analysis here and here.
The conclusion is that some people do not believe in Rasmussen's polls any more. For these people, we have produced this page, which is generated exactly the same way as the main page and the Senate page, except that first all the Rasmussen polls are temporarily removed from the database. To see if this page is more accurate than the main page and Senate page, please check back on Nov. 7, 2012.
Note: Only this page has Rasmussen-free data. All the other tables and graphs on the site include all polls, including Rasmussen's. -
lmao @ getting info from right wing ass Rasmussen. Electoral college is still in Obama's side. It NEVER stopped being in Obama's side. That little lead that Romney has in the popular vote might disappear when the Obama ground game gets in full throttle on election day.
Nate Silver predicted how many electorals obama would win in 08 and was only off by 4. I think hes pretty credible. and hes saying Obama got this.
with that said, obama may not get FL. Hell get VA though. -
earth two superman wrote: »lmao @ getting info from right wing ass Rasmussen. Electoral college is still in Obama's side. It NEVER stopped being in Obama's side. That little lead that Romney has in the popular vote might disappear when the Obama ground game gets in full throttle on election day.
Nate Silver predicted how many electorals obama would win in 08 and was only off by 4. I think hes pretty credible. and hes saying Obama got this.
with that said, obama may not get FL. Hell get VA though.
Romney will still win the supreme court can always do a recount.
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A non-Rasmussen poll has Obama losing big election day, on top of losing in a recent Gallup poll bad as well.....things aren't going as well for him as some of u think it is
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama and Romney
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
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kingblaze84 wrote: »A non-Rasmussen poll has Obama losing big election day, on top of losing in a recent Gallup poll bad as well.....things aren't going as well for him as some of u think it is
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama and Romney
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Seems to be yet another conservative rag linking to a poll ran by another conservative rag analyzing the data incorrectly. Also, is this a national or swing state pol because as was indicated in this thread, swing state is where it matters being that Obama already has enough votes elsewhere. -
FuriousOne wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »A non-Rasmussen poll has Obama losing big election day, on top of losing in a recent Gallup poll bad as well.....things aren't going as well for him as some of u think it is
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama and Romney
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Seems to be yet another conservative rag linking to a poll ran by another conservative rag analyzing the data incorrectly. Also, is this a national or swing state pol because as was indicated in this thread, swing state is where it matters being that Obama already has enough votes elsewhere.
The poll is bipartisan lol, it was ran by a Democrat and a Republican.....we can't just blame every poll that shows Obama losing on it being biased, what about the polls that show Obama winning? Are those biased too? You do have a fair point in what kind of poll it is, it seems to be a battleground poll from what I see. -
kingblaze84 wrote: »FuriousOne wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »A non-Rasmussen poll has Obama losing big election day, on top of losing in a recent Gallup poll bad as well.....things aren't going as well for him as some of u think it is
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama and Romney
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Seems to be yet another conservative rag linking to a poll ran by another conservative rag analyzing the data incorrectly. Also, is this a national or swing state pol because as was indicated in this thread, swing state is where it matters being that Obama already has enough votes elsewhere.
The poll is bipartisan lol, it was ran by a Democrat and a Republican.....we can't just blame every poll that shows Obama losing on it being biased, what about the polls that show Obama winning? Are those biased too? You do have a fair point in what kind of poll it is, it seems to be a battleground poll from what I see.
So there aren't any blue dogs? The poll was created by politico which is known to have open right leaning bias. What would work is if the polls you showed were inline with most other national polls and weren't backed by blatantly conservative media sites. -
fair enough. as far as saying state polls in battleground states matter MUCH more than whatever national polling says, i agree.waterproof wrote: »TOUCHE, then let me make more self a little clearer, I take no stocks In National Poll average concerning the race for the White House...I find that the State Polls and The Electoral College is a better indicator
true. that said, i think the argument is more a combination of "the Electoral College COULD tip in Romney's favor if everything goes right because it's a very close election" and "? ANYTHING THAT SUPPORTS OBAMA IS LIES"earth two superman wrote: »Nate Silver predicted how many electorals obama would win in 08 and was only off by 4. I think hes pretty credible. and hes saying Obama got this.
yes, because that is exactly how it happened in 2000 (rolls eyes excessively)cannonspike1994 wrote: »Romney will still win the supreme court can always do a recount. -
FuriousOne wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »FuriousOne wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »A non-Rasmussen poll has Obama losing big election day, on top of losing in a recent Gallup poll bad as well.....things aren't going as well for him as some of u think it is
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama and Romney
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Seems to be yet another conservative rag linking to a poll ran by another conservative rag analyzing the data incorrectly. Also, is this a national or swing state pol because as was indicated in this thread, swing state is where it matters being that Obama already has enough votes elsewhere.
The poll is bipartisan lol, it was ran by a Democrat and a Republican.....we can't just blame every poll that shows Obama losing on it being biased, what about the polls that show Obama winning? Are those biased too? You do have a fair point in what kind of poll it is, it seems to be a battleground poll from what I see.
So there aren't any blue dogs? The poll was created by politico which is known to have open right leaning bias. What would work is if the polls you showed were inline with most other national polls and weren't backed by blatantly conservative media sites.
Give me a break, I've put up 4 polls now that show Obama might be in some trouble, is Gallup right leaning now? According to this poll, Obama is losing the early vote now. Obama is probably still the favorite but Romney definitely has the momentum now
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2225226/US-Presidential-election-Mitt-Romney-ahead-Barack-Obama-early-votes.html?ITO=1490
Early voting has Mitt Romney ahead in Presidential elections as Sandy threatens both sides' campaigns
Romney has made a seven point lead among the 15% who have voted already
Obama says he is not worried and that the election will take care of himself
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2225226/US-Presidential-election-Mitt-Romney-ahead-Barack-Obama-early-votes.html#ixzz2Ap5YM9dQ
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
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kingblaze84 wrote: »FuriousOne wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »FuriousOne wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »A non-Rasmussen poll has Obama losing big election day, on top of losing in a recent Gallup poll bad as well.....things aren't going as well for him as some of u think it is
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama and Romney
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Seems to be yet another conservative rag linking to a poll ran by another conservative rag analyzing the data incorrectly. Also, is this a national or swing state pol because as was indicated in this thread, swing state is where it matters being that Obama already has enough votes elsewhere.
The poll is bipartisan lol, it was ran by a Democrat and a Republican.....we can't just blame every poll that shows Obama losing on it being biased, what about the polls that show Obama winning? Are those biased too? You do have a fair point in what kind of poll it is, it seems to be a battleground poll from what I see.
So there aren't any blue dogs? The poll was created by politico which is known to have open right leaning bias. What would work is if the polls you showed were inline with most other national polls and weren't backed by blatantly conservative media sites.
Give me a break, I've put up 4 polls now that show Obama might be in some trouble, is Gallup right leaning now? According to this poll, Obama is losing the early vote now. Obama is probably still the favorite but Romney definitely has the momentum now
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2225226/US-Presidential-election-Mitt-Romney-ahead-Barack-Obama-early-votes.html?ITO=1490
Early voting has Mitt Romney ahead in Presidential elections as Sandy threatens both sides' campaigns
Romney has made a seven point lead among the 15% who have voted already
Obama says he is not worried and that the election will take care of himself
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2225226/US-Presidential-election-Mitt-Romney-ahead-Barack-Obama-early-votes.html#ixzz2Ap5YM9dQ
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
whoever said Mitt Romey have the early advantage in early voting have lied, it's already reported since the early voting begun that obama have the the adavantage in Ohio, Nevada, Iowa
Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans
In two of the most competitive states in the U.S. presidential race -- Iowa and Nevada -- Democrats are building a significant advantage in early voting.
Who has the edge is more muddled in the bigger swing states of Ohio and Florida, while Republicans have a narrow lead in Colorado. Early, in-person voting started in Florida over the weekend, and dozens of Democrats in Tallahassee marched five blocks from a church to an early-voting site yesterday, chanting “Vote early.”
Almost 15 million people have already cast ballots nationwide, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. Both parties are spinning their versions of what the turnout means as they seek to project momentum in a contest where more than a third of the nation’s vote probably will be cast before Election Day, Nov. 6.
“The data are confirming what we are seeing in the polling, which is that these state races are going to be narrower than in 2008,” said Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason who studies early voting.
In Iowa, more than 470,000 people had cast ballots through Oct. 27, according to the Iowa secretary of state’s office. If as many people vote this year as did in 2008, that would represent 30 percent of the total vote. Registered Democrats have cast 44.6 percent of the ballots so far, compared with 32 percent by Republicans and 23.3 percent by independents.
Polls Versus Voting
“The main thing is not to look at the polling but to look at the voting,” David Axelrod, a senior campaign strategist for President Barack Obama, said yesterday on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “We are mounting up a very, very large lead in Iowa based on where those early votes are coming from.”
By the end of this week, McDonald said the proportion of early voting in Iowa, as compared with 2008’s total vote, could grow to 45 percent. If current trends for ballots requested and returned remain unchanged through this week, he said, Obama’s advantage could become almost insurmountable for Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
“That’s got to be troubling for Romney,” McDonald said. “Election Day would have to be a Republican parade for Romney to win the state.”
In Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, Obama banked so many early votes in 2008 that he won those states even though he ran behind in each in votes cast on Election Day itself, according to voting data compiled by the Associated Press.
Nevada Balloting
Thus far in Nevada, where an even larger proportion of the vote has been cast than in Iowa when compared with the 2008 vote, Democrats have accounted for 45 percent, according to an update today from the Nevada secretary of state’s office. Republicans represent 37 percent and independents 18 percent.
Republicans have a slim edge in Colorado’s early voting, according to data released today by the secretary of state’s office there. Of the vote turned in so far, 38 percent is from registered Republicans, while Democrats represent 36 percent and independents 24.5 percent.
Early, in-person voting started in Colorado on Oct. 22, a week after absentee voting. About a third of the total 2008 vote has now been cast.
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Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans
Banking Votes
The popularity of early voting is growing nationally, and Republicans and Democrats alike are seeing an increase from four years ago. Both parties are working to bank as many votes as possible so they can focus on late-deciders and others in the final week. Republicans say they’re placing their greatest emphasis on low-propensity voters -- those less likely to show up on Election Day.
Sometimes compared to a water spigot’s flow that starts out slowly and gradually grows more robust, early voting will continue to accelerate as Election Day nears, based on prior patterns. The associated data, which for now is a relatively small sample, will also become more predictive of what’s happening.
In 2008, about 30 percent of Americans voted before Election Day. That number is projected to grow to at least 35 percent this year, McDonald said.
Florida Vote
In Florida, only absentee balloting was available until this past weekend. Almost 1.9 million Floridians cast early and absentee ballots as of this morning, according to the Florida State Department. Democratic voters cast 42.2 percent of those ballots, slightly more than Republicans who accounted for 41.2 percent.
Among only absentee ballots in Florida through Oct. 27, Republicans cast 44 percent, while Democrats accounted for 39 percent, according to numbers from the Florida Democratic Party and Romney’s campaign. That 5-percentage-point advantage is down from a 15-point Republican edge at this point four years ago. Republicans have dominated absentee voting in recent Florida elections; Democrats have traditionally offset that with higher turnout at early-voting polling places.
‘Souls’ to Polls
Black voters are “galvanized” after Republican state lawmakers eliminated early voting in Florida on the Sunday before Election Day -- a day when traditionally black churches held “souls to the polls” events, said retired teacher Bill Tucker in Tallahassee.
“We had all the excitement four years ago, and we’re trying to get that back,” said Tucker, 72, outside the Leon County Courthouse and near a line of more than 80 voters.
In the swing states of Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, voters don’t register by party, so it’s less clear which party has the early-voting edge. Still, the early balloting can be viewed on a geographic basis and compared with 2008 election results.
McDonald said he expects more than 40 percent of Ohio’s voting to be done before Election Day, while the percentage of Virginia’s early voters will be in the “low teens.”
Obama Ohio Edge
Early, in-person voting started Oct. 2 in Ohio, and already more than 1 million people have voted in a state where 5.7 million did so in 2008. A Time magazine poll of likely Ohio voters last week showed Obama with a 2-to-1 lead, 60 percent to 30 percent, among those who have already voted.
Obama’s campaign is banking large numbers of votes in Ohio counties that backed him four years ago. In Franklin County, which includes Columbus, 141,019 people had already voted through Oct. 26, according to the local election board. That represents about a quarter of the county’s total vote in 2008, when 44 percent of the vote was cast before Election Day.
In Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and its suburbs, 161,889 had cast early ballots as of the end of last week, also about a quarter of the 2008 vote.
Ohio early voters favored Democratic candidates in 2010 and 2006, while Election Day voters favored Republican candidates, a study of early voting by the University of Akron concluded. Early voters were more likely to be women, older, and of lower income and education attainment, the 2010 study said.
Convenience Issue
“The primary reason for early voting is convenience, and many of the groups for whom convenience is a big issue tend to lean Democratic,” said John Green, a political science professor at the University of Akron.
In Virginia, the early vote so far has been minimal, with just 6.6 percent of the 2008 vote recorded, according to the project’s compilation of state data. New Hampshire doesn’t have early in-person voting.
Democrats and Republicans alike have been encouraging early voting in states that allow it. Obama canceled an absentee ballot he’d already received so that he could cast his ballot in person early in his Chicago precinct, trying to make the point to his supporters of how easy it is to do.
Republicans say many of their core voters, including senior citizens, prefer to vote on Election Day, as they have done for decades. Party officials say they aren’t making any big effort to get those voters to the polls early. -
Nate Silver: "Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped"
Nate Silver has been paying attention to his own data apparently and has come to the conclusion, evident in the 538 charts for more than a week, that Mitt Romney's early October momentum has stopped. Silver also looked at yesterday's national polls and came to the same conclusion as Markos:
Take Wednesday’s national tracking polls, for instance. (There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls.
This is the closest that we’ve come in a week or so to one candidate clearly having “won” the day in the tracking polls — and it was Mr. Obama.
The trend could also be spurious. If the race is steady, it’s not that hard for one candidate to gain ground in five of six polls (excluding the two that showed no movement on Wednesday) just based on chance alone.
What isn’t very likely, however, is for one candidate to lose ground in five of six polls if the race is still moving toward him. In other words, we can debate whether Mr. Obama has a pinch of momentum or whether the race is instead flat, but it’s improbable that Mr. Romney would have a day like this if he still had momentum.
And, beyond the question of Romney's momentum ending, is there a positive trend for the President?
The question, rather, is whether Mr. Romney is gaining ground relative to the post-Denver polls — or if, as Wednesday’s polls seemed to imply, the race instead may have ticked back slightly toward Mr. Obama. -
Latest Presidential polls: Gallup has Obama, Romney tied up with one week to go
LATEST PRESIDENTIAL POLLSOCTOBER 30, 2012
There is a mere week until the 2012 election to determine the next President of the United States, and it is going to be a tight race. The latest Gallup poll of likely voters was released on Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012 and shows that Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are completely tied up at 48 percent each.
This shows that President Obama has gained support of likely voters while Governor Mitt Romney has lost his previous lead
Gallup polled people that are likely to vote in the upcoming election and simply asked them which candidate they favored. The poll results are include those that were undecided when asked whether they leaned more toward Obama or Romney.
The RealClearPolitics average of numerous polls has Romney sitting at 48 percent of support while Obama is at 47.1 percent.
Recent and upcoming appearances for both candidates have been canceled or rescheduled due to Hurricane Sandy. Many analysts predict that this won't have much of an affect on either Romney or Obama.
According to projected numbers on PollTracker through Tuesday afternoon on Oct. 30, 2012:
President Barack Obama:
Popular Percentage: 47.4
Projected Electoral Votes: 247
Mitt Romney:
Popular Percentage: 47.9
Projected Electoral Votes: 206
270 electoral votes are needed to win the election. On Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012, Romney was sitting at 206 projected electoral votes and Obama had 261. -
YALL WANT MORE PROOF THAT so called Mitt Momentum is over, lol....
Obama and Romney Tied in All Latest Florida Polls
So who is going to win Florida? Don't ask the polls right now. Three major polls of Florida's electorate were completed over the weekend (just in time for early voting), and all three show President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a statistical tie in the Sunshine State.
A Public Policy Polling survey shows Obama with a slight 49-48 lead over Romney, but that's well within the margin of error, so the two are effectively tied.
A CNN poll likewise showed Romney with the one point lead, at 50-49. Again, that's well within the margin of error. Though with third party candidates like the Green's Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson added in the mix, Romney and Obama are tied 48-48.
A SurveyUSA poll meanwhile finds the two completely tied at 47-47. That survey also claims that among those who have already voted, Obama leads 57% to 42%. Though, among those who say they plan to vote on Election Day, Romney leads by 13 points.
It appears that the more people who show up at the polls, the better Obama's chance are. While the aforementioned CNN poll shows a virtual tie among "likely voters," Obama has a 52-46 among all registered voters.
So far, 2.3 million Floridians have already voted. That's about a quarter of the entire electorate. Registered Democrats so far lead by a slim margin in total votes cast.
The New York Times' Five Thirty Eight poll analysis blog still gives Romney a 65 percent chance of winning Florida, but predicts a thin vote margin of just 1.2 percent.
In other words: Your vote very well could make a difference either way, so get out and vote.
HUSSein is coming on strong at the end and that's where it counts, Mitt Peaked to early... obama is a politican maybe the first debate was a rope a dope -
waterproof wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »FuriousOne wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »FuriousOne wrote: »kingblaze84 wrote: »A non-Rasmussen poll has Obama losing big election day, on top of losing in a recent Gallup poll bad as well.....things aren't going as well for him as some of u think it is
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
Obama and Romney
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
Seems to be yet another conservative rag linking to a poll ran by another conservative rag analyzing the data incorrectly. Also, is this a national or swing state pol because as was indicated in this thread, swing state is where it matters being that Obama already has enough votes elsewhere.
The poll is bipartisan lol, it was ran by a Democrat and a Republican.....we can't just blame every poll that shows Obama losing on it being biased, what about the polls that show Obama winning? Are those biased too? You do have a fair point in what kind of poll it is, it seems to be a battleground poll from what I see.
So there aren't any blue dogs? The poll was created by politico which is known to have open right leaning bias. What would work is if the polls you showed were inline with most other national polls and weren't backed by blatantly conservative media sites.
Give me a break, I've put up 4 polls now that show Obama might be in some trouble, is Gallup right leaning now? According to this poll, Obama is losing the early vote now. Obama is probably still the favorite but Romney definitely has the momentum now
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2225226/US-Presidential-election-Mitt-Romney-ahead-Barack-Obama-early-votes.html?ITO=1490
Early voting has Mitt Romney ahead in Presidential elections as Sandy threatens both sides' campaigns
Romney has made a seven point lead among the 15% who have voted already
Obama says he is not worried and that the election will take care of himself
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2225226/US-Presidential-election-Mitt-Romney-ahead-Barack-Obama-early-votes.html#ixzz2Ap5YM9dQ
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whoever said Mitt Romey have the early advantage in early voting have lied, it's already reported since the early voting begun that obama have the the adavantage in Ohio, Nevada, Iowa
Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans
In two of the most competitive states in the U.S. presidential race -- Iowa and Nevada -- Democrats are building a significant advantage in early voting.
Who has the edge is more muddled in the bigger swing states of Ohio and Florida, while Republicans have a narrow lead in Colorado. Early, in-person voting started in Florida over the weekend, and dozens of Democrats in Tallahassee marched five blocks from a church to an early-voting site yesterday, chanting “Vote early.”
Almost 15 million people have already cast ballots nationwide, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. Both parties are spinning their versions of what the turnout means as they seek to project momentum in a contest where more than a third of the nation’s vote probably will be cast before Election Day, Nov. 6.
“The data are confirming what we are seeing in the polling, which is that these state races are going to be narrower than in 2008,” said Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason who studies early voting.
In Iowa, more than 470,000 people had cast ballots through Oct. 27, according to the Iowa secretary of state’s office. If as many people vote this year as did in 2008, that would represent 30 percent of the total vote. Registered Democrats have cast 44.6 percent of the ballots so far, compared with 32 percent by Republicans and 23.3 percent by independents.
Polls Versus Voting
“The main thing is not to look at the polling but to look at the voting,” David Axelrod, a senior campaign strategist for President Barack Obama, said yesterday on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “We are mounting up a very, very large lead in Iowa based on where those early votes are coming from.”
By the end of this week, McDonald said the proportion of early voting in Iowa, as compared with 2008’s total vote, could grow to 45 percent. If current trends for ballots requested and returned remain unchanged through this week, he said, Obama’s advantage could become almost insurmountable for Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
“That’s got to be troubling for Romney,” McDonald said. “Election Day would have to be a Republican parade for Romney to win the state.”
In Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, Obama banked so many early votes in 2008 that he won those states even though he ran behind in each in votes cast on Election Day itself, according to voting data compiled by the Associated Press.
Nevada Balloting
Thus far in Nevada, where an even larger proportion of the vote has been cast than in Iowa when compared with the 2008 vote, Democrats have accounted for 45 percent, according to an update today from the Nevada secretary of state’s office. Republicans represent 37 percent and independents 18 percent.
Republicans have a slim edge in Colorado’s early voting, according to data released today by the secretary of state’s office there. Of the vote turned in so far, 38 percent is from registered Republicans, while Democrats represent 36 percent and independents 24.5 percent.
Early, in-person voting started in Colorado on Oct. 22, a week after absentee voting. About a third of the total 2008 vote has now been cast.
We'll see how accurate your polls are on Nov 6th but it's funny how you say some polls are wrong but yours are conveniently accurate lol. Gallup is the most reliable poll and it shows a Romney advantage in early voting but we'll see what happens in less than a week..... -
Yes we will see what polls are accurate your Rasmussen and other right leaning polls, OR the left leaning polls or the independent polls like thirtyeight.
But here's a new Poll Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll
CBS NEWS/ October 31, 2012, 3:00 AM
Poll: Obama holds small Ohio edge; Fla., Va. tight
President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.
Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio - exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president's lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.
The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus three percentage points. The survey was taken from Oct. 23 to 28 and completed before the onset of the "superstorm" Sandy.
Romney has taken the lead among seniors in Florida in the new survey and increased his lead among white voters, and he has a significant advantage among independents in Virginia. In Florida and Ohio, the candidates are now running about even on handling the economy. In Virginia, Romney has an edge.
In Florida and Ohio, the president leads among those who have already cast their ballots, with a significant lead in Ohio, 60 to 34 percent. In Florida, Mr. Obama is up 50 to 44 percent. Among those who have yet to cast their vote, the two candidates are even in these states. Just a small percentage of voters in Virginia have already voted.
There are few voters left in these swing states who haven't made up their minds. Now, at least 95 percent of likely voters - including both Obama and Romney voters - have decided who they will support.
Most supporters from both camps say they strongly favor their candidate, though Mr. Obama's are slightly more likely to say they strongly favor him. But Romney has been improving on this measure - especially in Florida, from 57 percent a month ago to 74 percent today - nearly even with the president.
As they have throughout the fall, in all three states Republicans remain more enthusiastic about voting this year than Democrats. Florida Republicans in particular have become far more enthusiastic than Democrats over the past month. There is now a 16-point enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats in Florida, 63 percent to 47 percent, up from four points a month ago (52 to 48 percent).
The Race in Florida
President Obama continues to enjoy a double-digit lead among women, 53 to 43 percent, but that lead has been almost cut in half since last month. Romney has increased his advantage with men from three points last month to nine points now, 52 to 43 percent.
The president has the support of younger voters in this poll, 55 to 41 percent, while Romney leads with seniors, 53 to 42 percent. A month ago, the President had an edge with seniors.
Romney has expanded his lead with white voters and now leads the president by 22 points among this group, 59 to 37 percent. Four years ago, Mr. Obama received 42 percent of the white vote in Florida. In this poll, he is getting 37 percent.
The Race in Ohio
The race in Ohio remains largely unchanged from a week ago, with the president maintaining a significant lead with women (56 to 39 percent), while Romney is ahead by six points among men, 50 to 44 percent.
Seniors are backing Romney by 9 points, 52 to 43 percent, while Mr. Obama leads among younger voters, particularly those under 35, 58 to 36 percent. Romney leads among independents (49 to 43 percent) and whites (50 to 45 percent).
The Race in Virginia
In Virginia, the gender gap has narrowed slightly but it is still significant: President Obama holds a 10-point lead among women, 53 to 43 percent, while Romney holds a 9-point lead among men, 52 to 43 percent.
Virginia voters under 35 continue to favor the president, 54 to 41 percent, while Romney has made gains among voters between 35 and 64 - cutting down an eight-point Obama lead to three points among this age group, 50 to 47 percent. Virginia voters 65 and older support Romney by 13 points, 55 to 42 percent.
Among independents in Virginia, Romney has surged from a two-point deficit two weeks ago to a 21-point lead today, 57 to 36 percent. He has also increased his lead slightly among voters in military households.
Romney maintains a strong 22-point lead among white voters, 59 to 37 percent, while 93 percent of black voters are supporting Mr. Obama.
The Issues
The economy remains the most important issue to voters in all three states, and voters in Florida and Ohio are closely divided as to which candidate would do a better job handling it. In Virginia, where the candidates were neck-and-neck two weeks ago, Mitt Romney now has a four-point lead, 50 to 46 percent.
Voters in all three states are more optimistic now about both the national and state economies than they were in the summer. Four in 10 voters in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia now think the national economy is getting better. Back in August, just a quarter thought so.
A similar trend can be seen when these voters assess their own state's economy, particularly in Ohio. Back in August just 33 percent said that the economy in Ohio was getting better; now that has risen to 52 percent.
Voters who think the economy is improving in their state do give credit to the Obama administration. 7 in 10 think his administration deserves at least some of the credit, including at least four in 10 who say it deserves a lot of the credit.
At the same time, among those who think their state economy is getting worse, majorities think the Obama administration deserves at least some of the blame.
On other specific issues, President Obama has the advantage. More voters in all three states see him as better able to handle health care, Medicare, education and social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage, foreign policy and terrorism.
In all three states, voters also pick President Obama to do a better job helping the middle class. But when it comes to who would do a better job working with members of both parties, Florida and Virginia voters pick Mitt Romney. In Ohio, voters are divided
-
PPP Ohio: Obama 50, Romney 45
The latest from the Democratic polling firm, this time a survey conducted for the client Health Care for America Now, finds President Obama at 50 percent and Mitt Romney at 45 percent in Ohio:
-Obama’s approval rating is at the key 50% mark, with 47% of voters disapproving of him. Romney’s under water on his favorability, with 46% of voters rating him positively while 48% have a negative opinion.
-Obama’s already amassed a large lead in the state. 33% of voters say they’ve already cast their ballots and he leads 62-35 with them. Romney has a 50-45 advantage with those yet to vote.
-Obama leads with both women (53/44) and men (48/47). He is holding Romney to just a 50/46 advantage with white voters, not nearly enough to win the state. Obama also leads within every age group except for seniors.
If Obama does well enough with working-class white voters to win the state, it will be in no small measure because the auto bailout and the surgical targeting on Bain Capital as an attack on Romney that he wasn't able to get out from under. -
Detroit News poll: 3-point race in Michigan
As the Obama campaign goes on the air in Michigan, a newspaper poll there shows a close race with a small lead for the president:
Obama's lead over Romney has shrunk to just under 3 points, 47.7 percent to 45 percent, with 3.8 percent undecided, according to a new Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll of likely voters. Obama's lead was 6.7 points earlier this month and has eroded to within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error. It's the smallest advantage for the Democratic president during the Michigan campaign.
"Mitt Romney's numbers … are where they would need to be if he hopes to pull off an upset next week," said Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group Inc., which conducted the poll. "But the question is: Is there enough for a final push?"
Obama's lead is within the margin of error, which may reflect the tightening of the race nationally as well as the money Republican super PACs have spent in the state. Romney still has no Michigan trips on his schedule, so -- much like Minnesota and Pennsylvania -- this is a state both sides take seriously enough to spend in, but not seriously enough to visit. At least not yet. -
Poll: Voters say President Obama will win
A group of people who have accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote in the past four presidential elections thinks President Barack Obama is headed for a second term: the American people.
Fifty-four percent of Americans think Obama will win the election, compared with 32 percent who predict a Romney victory, according to Gallup polling released Wednesday but conducted before Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast. Eleven percent have no opinion.
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Back in May, 56 percent believed an Obama win was likely in November, 36 percent thought Romney was likely to win, and 8 percent had no opinion, according to Gallup.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday found a similar result: 53 percent of registered voters believed Obama would win, compared with 29 percent for Romney.
In the 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections, Americans accurately predicted the popular vote winner. The gap between Obama and Romney is similar to the gap between Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000. Fifty-two percent of registered voters thought then-Vice President Gore would defeat the Texas governor, while 35 percent thought Bush would win.
The poll of 1,063 adults was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
-
very interesting...
anyways, by tomorrow, I will have voted for Obama. -
NOW FOX NEWS GOT IT TIED BETWEEN HUSSEIN and WILLARD
Fox News poll: Race for the White House a dead heat
With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters.
Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate (October 7-9).
Interviews in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were completed before Monday evening, when the hurricane made landfall.
Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October.
There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back Romney by 51-42 percent, while women side with Obama by 50-42 percent.
The new Fox poll finds Obama under-performing compared to his 2008 exit poll numbers by 13 percentage points among independents, 9 points among white men, 6 points among women and 4 points among voters under age 30.
Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent.
The poll, released Wednesday, shows almost all Obama (92 percent) and Romney (91 percent) supporters say they will “definitely” vote for their candidate. Seven percent of Obama voters and eight percent of Romney voters say they will “probably” support or “lean” toward supporting their candidate.
Still, Romney’s supporters continue to be more enthusiastic: 69 percent say it’s extremely important he win, while 59 percent of those backing Obama feel that way.
And consider this: Fully 82 percent of Romney supporters say this year’s election is more important than the 2008 election. That’s 16 points higher than the 66 percent of Obama supporters who say the same.
Overall, 73 percent of voters feel this year’s election is more important than 2008.
Some good news in the poll for Obama is that nearly half of voters -- 46 percent -- are satisfied with the way things are going in the country today. That’s up from 31 percent two years ago, right before Republicans swept the midterm elections (October 2010).
In addition, by a slim two percentage-point margin, more voters think the economy is getting better than getting worse (45-43 percent).
The Romney campaign is focused on the 53 percent of voters who are unhappy with the way things are going in the country today, and the 50 percent who agree with him that government is too big.
Meanwhile, over half of voters -- 55 percent -- would like to see all or part of Obama’s health care law repealed -- something Romney’s said he would do on “Day 1.”
Nearly equal numbers of voters would be comfortable with each of the candidates as president: 44 percent would be comfortable with Obama for another four years, and 40 percent would be comfortable with Romney as president. Majorities would be uncomfortable with each (55 percent Obama, 58 percent Romney).
Forty-four percent of voters say economic issues such as jobs and growth will be most important in deciding their vote for president. That’s more than twice as many as any other issues. Sixteen percent say fiscal issues such as taxes, the deficit and government spending, 13 percent say social issues and seven percent national security issues.
Voters who say the economy will be most important in their decision back Romney by 50-43 percent, and fiscal-issue voters back him by a similar 50-41 percent.
In addition, more voters trust Romney on the top issues. More trust him to improve the economy (+9 points), reduce the deficit (+5 points) and manage their taxes (+5 points). By 54-41 percent, voters also think Romney has the right experience to create more jobs.
Obama comes out on top on handling foreign policy (+8 points), helping people achieve the American dream (+8 points), handling education (+7 points) and terrorism (+6 points).
The candidates are tied on taking the country in the right direction, encouraging the right values, handling health care and national security.
In addition, the two are about equally liked by voters. Fifty-two percent have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 51 percent have a positive view of Romney.
When voters are given more options to describe their views, the poll shows most like Obama as a person (69 percent). On his policies, some 48 percent like them, while 51 dislike them.
A 56-percent majority of voters likes Romney as a person. On his policies, voters divide almost evenly: 48 percent like his policies and 49 percent dislike them.
Forty-seven percent of voters like both Obama and his policies, while 42 percent like both Romney and his policies.
Some 29 percent dislike both Obama and his policies. For Romney, that’s 35 percent.
