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Global warming; extreme weather and flooding, is your city fucked?!

VIBEVIBE Posts: 54,384 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited September 2014 in For The Grown & Sexy
Alaskans, stay in Alaska. People in the Midwest and the Pacific Northwest, sit tight.

Scientists trying to predict the consequences of climate change say that they see few havens from the storms, floods and droughts that are sure to intensify over the coming decades.

But some regions, they add, will fare much better than others.

Forget most of California and the Southwest (drought, wildfires).

Ditto for much of the East Coast and Southeast (heat waves, hurricanes, rising sea levels).


Washington, D.C., for example, may well be a flood zone by 2100, according to an estimate released last week.

Instead, consider Anchorage. Or even, perhaps, Detroit.

“If you do not like it hot and do not want to be hit by a hurricane, the options of where to go are very limited,” said Camilo Mora, a geography professor at the University of Hawaii and lead author of a paper published in Nature last year predicting that unprecedented high temperatures will become the norm worldwide by 2047.

“The best place really is Alaska,” he added. “Alaska is going to be the next Florida by the end of the century.”

Under any model of climate change, scientists say, most of the country will look and feel drastically different in 2050, 2100 and beyond, even as cities and states try to adapt and plan ahead.

The northern Great Plains states may well be pleasant (if muggy) for future generations, as may many neighboring states.

Although few people today are moving long distances to strategize for climate change, some are at least pondering the question of where they would go.

“The answer is the Pacific Northwest, and probably especially west of the Cascades,” said Ben Strauss, vice president for climate impacts and director of the program on sea level rise at Climate Central, a research collaboration of scientists and journalists.

“Actually, the strip of coastal land running from Canada down to the Bay Area is probably the best,” he added. “You see a lot less extreme heat; it’s the one place in the West where there’s no real expectation of major water stress, and while sea level will rise there as everywhere, the land rises steeply out of the ocean, so it’s a relatively small factor.”

Clifford E. Mass, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Washington, writes a popular weather blog in which he predicts that the Pacific Northwest will be “a potential climate refuge” as global warming progresses.

A Seattle resident, he foresees that “climate change migrants” will start heading to his city and to Portland, Ore., and surrounding areas.

“The Pacific Ocean is like our natural air conditioning,” Professor Mass said in a telephone interview. “We don’t get humidity like the East Coast does.”

As for the water supply? “Water is important, and we will have it,” Professor Mass declared. “All in all, it’s a pretty benign situation for us — in fact, warming up just a little bit might be a little bit welcome around here.”

Already, he said, Washington State is gearing up to become the next Napa Valley as California’s wine country heats up and dries out.

“People are going crazy putting in vineyards in eastern Washington right now,” he said.

There may be other refuges to the east. Don’t count out the elevated inland cities in the country’s midsection, like Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, Milwaukee and Detroit, said Matthew E. Kahn, a professor of environmental economics at the University of California, Los Angeles.

“I predict we’re going to have millions of people moving to those areas,” he said in a telephone interview.


In his 2010 book “Climatopolis,” Professor Kahn predicts that when things get bad enough in any given location — not just the temperatures and extreme weather, but also the cost of insurance and so forth — people will become “environmental refugees,” fleeing cities like Phoenix, Los Angeles and San Diego.

By 2100, he writes, Detroit will be one of the nation’s most desirable cities.

That assertion came as a surprise to Rachel Burnside-Saltmarshall, a former president of the Detroit Association of Realtors.

“I haven’t come across that,” Ms. Burnside-Saltmarshall said diplomatically, adding that there were more immediate municipal concerns. “Like crime — tell me when that’s going to go down.”

A report by United Van Lines looking at relocation trends in 2013 found that its customers were moving primarily for economic reasons — a new job, lower costs of living — or quality-of-life considerations that were not climate related, such as public transit or green space.

Coincidentally, Oregon — a predicted climate-change winner — topped the list of inbound moves, followed by South Carolina, North Carolina, the District of Columbia and South Dakota.

The top states for outbound moves were New Jersey, Illinois, New York, West Virginia and Connecticut.

“What we see is that people are actually moving into harm’s way,” said Thomas C. Peterson, principal scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center.

“They’re moving from relatively safe places in the Midwest to places along the Florida coast, where the risk has been increasing.”

In May, Miami was named one of the nation’s most vulnerable cities in the National Climate Assessment, the third in a series of federal reports on how global warming will play out across the country.

The week the report was released, Miami Beach residents were wading through ankle-deep waters on some of their main thoroughfares.

As sea levels rise in the decades ahead, said Professor Mass of the University of Washington, “if there’s ground zero for where you don’t want to be, Florida is it.”


Other particularly vulnerable places are the low-lying cities of the East and Gulf Coasts, he noted.

As for New York City, the nation’s most populous city, Professor Mora at the University of Hawaii projects that 2047 will be the “year of climate change departure” — when weather that seems extraordinarily hot and catastrophic by today’s standards will become the norm.

“The coasts are all going to be facing very hot temperatures,” Professor Mora said. Washington, D.C., will reach its tipping point the same year, under his model; Los Angeles has until 2048; San Francisco, 2049 and Chicago, 2052. Detroit has until 2051, and Anchorage, 2071.

Some climate experts are optimistic that major cities will plan, adapt and ward off catastrophe.

“New York has such a concentration of wealth and assets that I expect we will invest to defend the region from sea level rise and flooding, and there’s already movement in that direction,” said Mr. Strauss of Climate Central, a New York City resident.

But even in the places that are expected to come out ahead, the picture does not look entirely rosy.

“Summer in Minnesota is projected to be like the climate is in northern Oklahoma — the trees and the forests there, the crops that farmers plant,” said Dr. Peterson of NOAA, citing the 2009 National Climate Assessment. “You build houses differently in Minnesota versus Oklahoma, you lay railroad tracks differently.”

All in all, Dr. Peterson said, the changes will be highly disruptive, particularly over time. “We often talk about the climate from now ’til the end of this century, because that’s kind of a nice model,” he said, “But it’s not going to end there — it’s going to keep changing.”

Replies

  • VIBEVIBE Posts: 54,384 ✭✭✭✭✭
    TL;DR

    Climate change aka global warming

    Hotter weather, severe flooding

    Cali and Florida are fucked, especially Florida

    New York, too, possible they can build to protect but not forever

    Alaska is a top candidate for safe living, along with Detroit, Minn, Salt Lake City, and Milwaukee

    Expected change to be seen and felt by 2050-2100
  • Lou_CypherLou_Cypher Make Reasonable Choices. H. E. Double Hockey SticksPosts: 52,498 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Man we've had a bunch of quakes in the last few days. Im scared we're gonna have the big one here soon.
    deadeyeOlorun22KINGEC
  • VIBEVIBE Posts: 54,384 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was with you up until...
    VIBE wrote: »
    By 2100, he writes, Detroit will be one of the nation’s most desirable cities.

    I thought the same thing, but when you're forced to make a change to survive, you do what you got to do. Detroit can be changed by this alone.
  • 2stepz_ahead2stepz_ahead Who I am is Complex, What i am, simply put. I'm a Threat walking out the lions denPosts: 32,324 ✭✭✭✭✭
    well denver is a mile high
    you have the dude who is naturally thorough -Alpha
    you have the dude that wants to be thorough so he pretend to be Alpha -Beta
    then you have the nigga who wants to hang with the first two to be seen and grab any dropped crumbs.- Omega

    I am still struggling between blocks to get from the have nots to the have yachts and I won't be stopped.



    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=HhTZZdVbjio


  • VIBEVIBE Posts: 54,384 ✭✭✭✭✭
    But, ultimately, everyone in the US is fucked.

    After 2100, where does everyone go?
    deadeye
  • dalyricalbanditdalyricalbandit Co-Owner Of AllhipHop.com, Super Moderator, Administrator, Moderator Posts: 67,917 Regulator
    VIBE wrote: »
    But, ultimately, everyone in the US is fucked.

    After 2100, where does everyone go?

    back to the Motherland
  • So ILLSo ILL Posts: 16,507 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "We're a tropical people, let the Europeans deal with that madness."
      Colin$mackabi$h
  • Ghost313Ghost313 Mistah Don't Play Posts: 6,362 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I was with you up until...
    VIBE wrote: »
    By 2100, he writes, Detroit will be one of the nation’s most desirable cities.

    In 80 years, it will be a complete different city. He'll in 30, it will be a white people's utopia.
    desertrain10
  • reapin505reapin505 Gundams and history. I have nothing else to offer an asteroid rushing to the sunPosts: 4,009 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I wonder how the Mediterranean will be looking in 50 years? I wanna visit that place before I die or it is washed away. I give no fucks bout new mexico becoming a wasteland.
    tumblr_mb11amvUpR1rbi7xvo1_400.gif

    metal_gear_solid_5_snake_gif_by_matiaszero-d60tt74.gif
    xzxqfcbkpehjjfdl.png
    “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
    Ghost313
  •   Colin$mackabi$h Colin$mackabi$h Smartass Snatch Money ave.Posts: 16,586 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So ILL wrote: »
    "We're a tropical people, let the Europeans deal with that madness."

    They start the shit.
    Powered by 9(0)'s sun.
    So ILL
  • Breezy_KilroyBreezy_Kilroy Posts: 10,500 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ghost313 wrote: »
    I was with you up until...
    VIBE wrote: »
    By 2100, he writes, Detroit will be one of the nation’s most desirable cities.

    In 80 years, it will be a complete different city. He'll in 30, it will be a white people's utopia.

    They trying to take this bitch over. Kicking out all the black folks.

    I've always said Michigan is a nice place to live. We ain't got no hurricanes, it don't get too hot in the summer, barely if any tornadoes, no earthquakes only thing I hate is winter. It was cold as fuck last year and they saying its going to be worse this year.

    I'm not ready.
    12715221_1544933472501286_6918897634016329581_n.jpg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=9fa1452681ccbeedd4b6da85510815bf&oe=576D10DE
    stackmaster 313Ghost313
  • Bcotton5Bcotton5 Posts: 51,851 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Detroit had a real bad flood last month
    JusDre313stackmaster 313Ghost313
  • BlackCatBlackCat Posts: 824 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Washington, D.C., for example, may well be a flood zone by 2100, according to an estimate released last week"

    Damn I won't be alive by then but that would suck. I got a feeling they gonna figure out to take over Africa if this start happening smh
  • Bulletproof WalletsBulletproof Wallets Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Detroit Lions 2100 Superbowl Champions.
  • BoldChildBoldChild Born alone, die alone. Posts: 11,415 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm in the midwest.

    Doesn't matter, I'll likely be dead.
  • BarreGoffBarreGoff Posts: 326 ✭✭
    I dont think Alaska will ever be the next Florida lol
  • D. MorganD. Morgan Not even on social media BUT.... I'M SWAGGIN SO HARD I FUCKED THE GRAM UPPosts: 11,662 ✭✭✭✭✭
    2100 I'll have been dead for a long ass time. So the lack of preparation now for 2100 will never be my emergency in 2100.
    so-you-can-justify-your-fear-of-all-muslims-because-13552115.png
    ui0cXEZO9B942C0C9zdV0mZbrfnJkR8jgEiVo_neMrk.gif?w=320&s=dfba6d9b7859acd7de58df24940fed79
    the-real-rick-ross-ain-t-a-rapper.american-apparel-unisex-fitted-tee.white.w760h760.jpg














  • Billy_PonchoBilly_Poncho Vox Populi Posts: 22,384 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I wanna see a post-apocalyptic world, I hope it looks like Road Warrior
  • LUClENLUClEN Absence makes the heart grow fonder of someone else Posts: 20,559 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Summer in September

    Iono what's going on but i think it's going to be a warm ass summer in Toronto
    The rapper from linkin park would body the dudes in the xxxtentacion cypher
  • Darth SidiousDarth Sidious ..in the grim darkness of the far future, there is only warPosts: 2,507 ✭✭✭✭✭
    it's called 'Global Warming', not 'Regional Warming'. Everyone will be\is fucked in some way. California produces 'half of US-grown fruits, nuts and vegetables' so expect 'slightly higher costs' at grocery store when that is not happening as much.

    Those cost increases trickle down to the rest of the country and world and will drag the economy down.

    http://westernfarmpress.com/tree-nuts/what-happens-if-us-loses-california-food-production

    "CA" leads all of the other states in farm income. It’s positioned as the agricultural powerhouse of the United States. About 73 percent of the state’s ag revenues are derived from crops while the other 27 percent of revenues are generated by livestock commodities. In terms of revenue generated, California’s top five ag products are dairy products, greenhouse and nursery products, grapes, almonds, and cattle and calves. California agriculture generates roughly $37.5 billion annually, more than any other state.

    So a loss of California ag production would hit hard consumers’ wallets and their diets would become less balanced.This is because our state produces a sizable majority of American fruits, vegetables and nuts; 99 percent of walnuts, 97 percent of kiwis, 97 percent of plums, 95 percent of celery, 95 percent of garlic, 89 percent of cauliflower, 71 percent of spinach, and 69 percent of carrots and the list goes on and on. A lot of this is due to our soil and climate. No other state, or even a combination of states, can match California’s output per acre.
    349213HorusRisingbyNeilRoberts.jpg

    poster-horus-rising.jpg
    VIBE
  • infamous114infamous114 Down in Miami where it's warm in the winter. Posts: 52,202 Regulator
    I live in Miami...we'll be underwater, hopefully not in my lifetime lol.
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    tumblr_p06lruvfZL1u1kyq6o2_540.gif
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