So is the recession really over?
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Hyde Parke
Members Posts: 2,573 ✭✭✭
The recession ended last June, according to those who decide–the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The economy has been in an expansion since then, at least so far as the NBER is willing to admit. The agency made it clear that the economy did not return to normal 15 months ago. It simply stopped contracting.
It is hard to argue with the assessment since the Committee makes the rules. It is also hard to argue that most Americans do not perceive the recession as having reached an end–a number of polls show citizens believe that it could last until next year. Certainly those who are unemployed or underemployed cannot be convinced of any economic improvement. It is cold comfort that the non-farm part of the job pool is shedding only a hundred thousand jobs a month and not more than half a million.
The list of the indexes the NBER uses to make its decision:
Macroeconomic Advisers monthly GDP (June)
The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
Their index of monthly GDI (July)
An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
Index of Industrial Production (June)
Real personal income less transfers (October)
Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
Payroll survey employment (December)
Household survey employment (December)
Read more: The Recession Is Over, Long Live The Recession - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2010/09/20/the-recession-is-over-long-live-the-recession/#ixzz106fdGXKC
It is hard to argue with the assessment since the Committee makes the rules. It is also hard to argue that most Americans do not perceive the recession as having reached an end–a number of polls show citizens believe that it could last until next year. Certainly those who are unemployed or underemployed cannot be convinced of any economic improvement. It is cold comfort that the non-farm part of the job pool is shedding only a hundred thousand jobs a month and not more than half a million.
The list of the indexes the NBER uses to make its decision:
Macroeconomic Advisers monthly GDP (June)
The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
Their index of monthly GDI (July)
An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
Index of Industrial Production (June)
Real personal income less transfers (October)
Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
Payroll survey employment (December)
Household survey employment (December)
Read more: The Recession Is Over, Long Live The Recession - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2010/09/20/the-recession-is-over-long-live-the-recession/#ixzz106fdGXKC
Comments
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Hyde Parke wrote: »The recession ended last June, according to those who decide–the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The economy has been in an expansion since then, at least so far as the NBER is willing to admit. The agency made it clear that the economy did not return to normal 15 months ago. It simply stopped contracting.
It is hard to argue with the assessment since the Committee makes the rules. It is also hard to argue that most Americans do not perceive the recession as having reached an end–a number of polls show citizens believe that it could last until next year. Certainly those who are unemployed or underemployed cannot be convinced of any economic improvement. It is cold comfort that the non-farm part of the job pool is shedding only a hundred thousand jobs a month and not more than half a million.
The list of the indexes the NBER uses to make its decision:
Macroeconomic Advisers monthly GDP (June)
The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
Their index of monthly GDI (July)
An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
Index of Industrial Production (June)
Real personal income less transfers (October)
Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
Payroll survey employment (December)
Household survey employment (December)
Read more: The Recession Is Over, Long Live The Recession - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2010/09/20/the-recession-is-over-long-live-the-recession/#ixzz106fdGXKC
If all of these indexes measure the GDP (gross domestic product), then how do we measure the NDP, the net domestic product?
What ever the answer, I'll assume it's been contracting since the late 60's. -
Answer: NO! I'm from Michigan and this state is steadily losing jobs on a daily basis.
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Unemployment.willhustle25 wrote: »Answer: NO! I'm from Michigan and this state is steadily losing jobs on a daily basis.
Oh, like Michigan WASN'T losing jobs before the ? housing crash. ? Please. -
Truthfully I think it's the emergency extensions that are keeping the unemployment rate so high. Just around me if I go to PACareerlink and search there are over 20,000 available jobs in the last 3 months.
That wouldn't end it in PA, that sure ? helps though, I think some people are comfortable on that smaller unemployment check and are just relaxing on it until it runs out. Which as long as the extensions keep comin it won't stop. -
No I dont think the recession is over. Seems like the pundits go back & forth over whether or not the states really is. Things are most definitely getting better & will go back to prosperity but I think the American's are gonna be in this recession until about 2013. What the economy needs are jobs, corporations need to keep hiring. American business has definitely been climbing all across the board.
? debate did you ? me in?
Have we ever debated on anything? -
The Prime Minister wrote: »If all of these indexes measure the GDP (gross domestic product), then how do we measure the NDP, the net domestic product?
What ever the answer, I'll assume it's been contracting since the late 60's.
its the GDP minus depreciation on capitol goods...and i think you're right, it actually paints a more accurate picture. -
Princess Jihad wrote: »Unemployment is at its highest right now, according to Democracy Now.
yeah, i hear they base those figures by a survey of about $60,000 households, and that is to represent the enitre population. u hear otherwise on the news that unemployment is calculated by how many people are looking for jobs or filing benefits, but the cost to do that on a monthly basis would be too expensive. -
ThaChozenWun wrote: »Truthfully I think it's the emergency extensions that are keeping the unemployment rate so high. Just around me if I go to PACareerlink and search there are over 20,000 available jobs in the last 3 months.
That wouldn't end it in PA, that sure ? helps though, I think some people are comfortable on that smaller unemployment check and are just relaxing on it until it runs out. Which as long as the extensions keep comin it won't stop.
so you're saying people dont want to work and just want to collect unemployment? You think people dont mind losing their cars, homes and livlihood in exchange for a smaller check? interesting. -
No I dont think the recession is over. Seems like the pundits go back & forth over whether or not the states really is. Things are most definitely getting better & will go back to prosperity but I think the American's are gonna be in this recession until about 2013. What the economy needs are jobs, corporations need to keep hiring. American business has definitely been climbing all across the board.
i dont think its over either, i think its a play on the public. -
Hyde Parke wrote: »so you're saying people dont want to work and just want to collect unemployment? You think people dont mind losing their cars, homes and livlihood in exchange for a smaller check? interesting.
Never said that. You're reading too much into it and drawing up something I never said.
I said I think "SOME PEOPLE". Those losing cars and stuff are because they were accustomed to well paying jobs. Right now around here the jobs that are hiring pay between 8-15 dollars an hour. People aren't taking them because they want to jump back into a higher paying job again so they relax on what they are getting on umeployment.
Then yes there are others who didn't have ? to begin with, meaning they still lived at home, they worked a bad job anyway, they weren't wealthy, etc... that keep living on extensions because they don't have high payments or don't pay alot of bills to begin with. There is no reason each month 20,000+ jobs are available over and over and people are still complaining. A job is a job, get one and while you're there continue looking for your job but don't complain and say there are none because it's not what you want right now. -
ThaChozenWun wrote: »Never said that. You're reading too much into it and drawing up something I never said.
I said I think "SOME PEOPLE". Those losing cars and stuff are because they were accustomed to well paying jobs. Right now around here the jobs that are hiring pay between 8-15 dollars an hour. People aren't taking them because they want to jump back into a higher paying job again so they relax on what they are getting on umeployment.
Then yes there are others who didn't have ? to begin with, meaning they still lived at home, they worked a bad job anyway, they weren't wealthy, etc... that keep living on extensions because they don't have high payments or don't pay alot of bills to begin with. There is no reason each month 20,000+ jobs are available over and over and people are still complaining. A job is a job, get one and while you're there continue looking for your job but don't complain and say there are none because it's not what you want right now.
you based that "some people" around your whole post, so it seems those "some people" seem to be more important than the other people to you, which in fact are greater than the" some", yet you choose to recognize the "some" only..
i agree, there are people capitalizing off of the system, i think the amount of people that really want to get back to work is greater than the ones who dont. just mo.
Chozen, i been pulled your card yo, you like to hide behind what it is you really want to say..just my observation. -
i say in my head sometimes, people need to get they ass back to work, but im on the outside looking in, and if like you say there is 20,000 jobs available, i would say thats a problem for the employer as well..thats an indicator that they arent readily hiring like they should, or they are looking for certain qualifications..goes both ways..most people i know who got a job in the down economy did so thru networking, companies are not just hiring people like that..its all who you know.
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Hyde Parke wrote: »you based that "some people" around your whole post, so it seems those "some people" seem to be more important than the other people to you, which in fact are greater than the" some", yet you choose to recognize the "some" only..
i agree, there are people capitalizing off of the system, i think the amount of people that really want to get back to work is greater than the ones who dont. just mo.
Chozen, i been pulled your card yo, you like to hide behind what it is you really want to say..just my observation.
Oh no my Psychology again.
FOH -
Hyde Parke wrote: »i say in my head sometimes, people need to get they ass back to work, but im on the outside looking in, and if like you say there is 20,000 jobs available, i would say thats a problem for the employer as well..thats an indicator that they arent readily hiring like they should, or they are looking for certain qualifications..goes both ways..most people i know who got a job in the down economy did so thru networking, companies are not just hiring people like that..its all who you know.
You can see what they want.
GED or Equivalant.
These are normal jobs, not special degrees or papers needed.
Facts is Facts, some people are just ? lazy and want to lay around doing nothing. As long as extensions keep getting passed unemployment will remain over the top. -
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Hyde Parke wrote: »hey, it is what is is.
If your such the Psychology professor Hyde why is it you never can tell me what I'm trying to say.
When you do try, the ? is far off. -
ThaChozenWun wrote: »If your such the Psychology professor Hyde why is it you never can tell me what I'm trying to say.
When you do try, the ? is far off.
ask yourself that, shid, idk.. maybe you dont even know what it is you want to say, you spend so much time running away from it. and if by chance i was right, your pride wouldnt allow you to admit to such a thing.
one thing is clear, most of your posts are full of contradictions. -
ThaChozenWun wrote: »You can see what they want.
GED or Equivalant.
These are normal jobs, not special degrees or papers needed.
Facts is Facts, some people are just ? lazy and want to lay around doing nothing. As long as extensions keep getting passed unemployment will remain over the top.
so what about the people that are really trying to find work, any work ? They do exist dont they? whats their story? -
Hyde Parke wrote: »so what about the people that are really trying to find work, any work ? They do exist dont they? whats their story?
Yes. They are the ones who are filling these jobs. But there are a shitload of positions open still because the variety of others who won't take that job for one reason or another. -
People are getting kicked out of their houses all the time, and young people have the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depresssion..........so no, the recession is not over.
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ThaChozenWun wrote: »Yes. They are the ones who are filling these jobs. But there are a shitload of positions open still because the variety of others who won't take that job for one reason or another.
no, no my brotha..im telling you, there is a shitload of people who are seeking employment and are not getting hired..this is a fact. turning in resume after resume, and not getting nada...and corporations are more likely to hire if the candidate has been referred, so the ones who have no networking connections are out there floating in the wind.
lets be real, the ones who arent taking the jobs are the same ones who probably were not taking the jobs or going from job to job before the recession. it doesnt make logical sense for someone who has had a career to suddenly go from that to just sitting around waiting on a check..does it? -
kingblaze84 wrote: »People are getting kicked out of their houses all the time, and young people have the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depresssion..........so no, the recession is not over.
i agree, im in Florida, which has to be one of the worst states affected. -
Hyde Parke wrote: »no, no my brotha..im telling you, there is a shitload of people who are seeking employment and are not getting hired..this is a fact. turning in resume after resume, and not getting nada...and corporations are more likely to hire if the candidate has been referred, so the ones who have no networking connections are out there floating in the wind.
lets be real, the ones who arent taking the jobs are the same ones who probably were not taking the jobs or going from job to job before the recession. it doesnt make logical sense for someone who has had a career to suddenly go from that to just sitting around waiting on a check..does it?
And then there are the people who refuse to the work an available job because of pay, location, distance, type of work, hours, etc...
Then there are those who worked before because they had to so bills would get paid, now unemployment is paying the bills so they are riding the wave.
For every 20 people putting out resume after resume there are 40 who are riding the wave til it dies. -
ThaChozenWun wrote: »Yes. They are the ones who are filling these jobs. But there are a shitload of positions open still because the variety of others who won't take that job for one reason or another.
This coming from a dude who probably never entered the job market or had to hit the pavement. Sorry Chozen, that is not accurate. You got people with PHD's jitneying and driving cabs in Pittsburg and working at Starbucks.
I lived in Pittsburgh for 5 years, there is no wide scale of job openings. People are scrambling. -
This coming from a dude who probably never entered the job market or had to hit the pavement. Sorry Chozen, that is not accurate. You got people with PHD's jitneying and driving cabs in Pittsburg and working at Starbucks.
I lived in Pittsburgh for 5 years, there is no wide scale of job openings. People are scrambling.
go check PAcareerlink fam. My girl works for the city she's the one who told me about employers not having many people apply for those jobs.
You are right though I never had to go through the job market. My closest thing to lookin for work was hiring an agent.
