Russian government agency reveals fraudulent nature of the Crimean referendum results

janklow
janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
rather than fed one of our well-worn Ukraine threads, let's have another:
Russian government agency reveals fraudulent nature of the Crimean referendum results

The Russian government’s claims that the March 16 referendum in Crimea resulted in a 96.7% vote in favor of annexation were always extremely dubious. But now, as Paul Roderick Gregory of Forbes points out, a report by Russia’s official Presidential Council on Civil Society and Human Rights suggests that the real numbers were far different from those previously claimed:

The website of the “President of Russia’s Council on Civil Society and Human Rights” posted a blog that was quickly taken down as if it were toxic radioactive waste. According to the Council’s report about the March referendum to annex Crimea, the turnout was a maximum 30%. And of these, only half voted for annexation – meaning only 15 percent of Crimean citizens voted for annexation.

The fate of Crimea, therefore, was decided by the 15 percent of Crimeans, who voted in favor of unification with Russia (under the watchful eye of Kalashnikov-toting soldiers).

Although the report appears to be absent from the English-Language Council website linked by Forbes, it is still available at the Council’s Russian-language website here. The report states that it is based on interviews with numerous Crimean officials, experts, civil society leaders, and ordinary citizens. Gregory has somewhat misinterpreted the figures there, which nonetheless are far different from those previously claimed by the Russian government. Here is my translation of the relevant passage of the report:

In the opinion of virtually all the experts and citizens interviewed:

- The vast majority of the citizens of Sevastopol voted in favor of unification with Russia in the referendum (50-80%); in Crimea, various data show that 50-60% voted for unification with Russia, with a turnout of 30-50%.

50 to 60% of a 30-50% turnout suggests that only about 15 to 30% of eligible voters actually voted for annexation. Moreover, the low turnout rate, combined with evidence of intimidation and violence by pro-Russia forces, strongly suggests that many opponents of annexation chose not to vote out of fear. This does not definitively prove that annexation lacked majority support. It is possible that a fair vote might still have led to a narrow majority in favor of annexation. Still, the Council report provides further evidence that the official results cannot be trusted and that the real distribution of opinion in Crimea is at least much more evenly divided than Russia claims.

For reasons I outlined here, Russia’s annexation of Crimea would be illegitimate even if it did enjoy the support of a majority of the population. But the possible absence of such support further undermines the already weak moral and legal case for Russia’s actions.

The Council report also discusses a number of troubling developments in Crimea since the Russian occupation began. For example, it states that the new authorities in Crimea have decided to “liquidate” the pro-Ukrainian Kiev Patriarchate Orthodox church in the region, details the persecution of Crimean Tatar groups opposed to Russia rule, and notes that Crimean journalists fear the “numerous restrictions” on freedom of speech and press imposed by Russian law.

It should be noted that the Council has long been one of the few Russian government agencies willing to criticize the government on human rights issues, but more recently many of the more liberal members of Council have resigned or been forced out.

Comments

  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2014
    Okay and....? The people of Crimea, including their parliament, voted to join Russia. Sure 30% turnout is beyond horrible and 15% doesn't sound great but it could still be majority vote with 15.1% and I doubt it was just 15%, look at how popular Russia is in Crimea. They embraced the Russians with open arms, no fighting in Crimea unlike a lot of places America is in now lol....

    Eastern Ukraine will be interesting May 11th, they have a referendum on that date to join Russia, be a more autonomous region, or just be a separate country.....my bet is they just become more autonomous and declare much deeper ties to Russia, exactly what Putin wants.
  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Either way Crimea isn't going anywhere and America and NATO knows it
  • janklow
    janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
    The people of Crimea, including their parliament, voted to join Russia.
    did you read the article? because that's the point ACTUALLY BEING DISCUSSED IN THE ARTICLE.
    Sure 30% turnout is beyond horrible and 15% doesn't sound great but it could still be majority vote with 15.1% and I doubt it was just 15%, look at how popular Russia is in Crimea.
    "Moreover, the low turnout rate, combined with evidence of intimidation and violence by pro-Russia forces, strongly suggests that many opponents of annexation chose not to vote out of fear. This does not definitively prove that annexation lacked majority support."
  • janklow
    janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
    Either way Crimea isn't going anywhere and America and NATO knows it
    i was wondering how long it would take to spam the "defense of Russia" commentary. answer: two posts!

  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yeah well interesting stuff either way
  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2014
    Vladimir Putin took his victory lap in Crimea today LOL......

    3718b8562beaa712530f6a7067007db4.jpg

    He's being celebrated as a hero there for rescuing them from the non elected govt of Ukraine according to Yahoo News
  • janklow
    janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
    Yeah well interesting stuff either way
    well, i recommend you read it before you get all worked up in this thread
    He's being celebrated as a hero there for rescuing them from the non elected govt of Ukraine according to Yahoo News
    pretty sure that statement is based on some of the things discussed above
  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    janklow wrote: »
    Yeah well interesting stuff either way
    well, i recommend you read it before you get all worked up in this thread
    He's being celebrated as a hero there for rescuing them from the non elected govt of Ukraine according to Yahoo News
    pretty sure that statement is based on some of the things discussed above

    I'm not getting worked up at all. What are your thoughts on Putin flaunting his annexation of Crimea? NATO and America's opinion don't seem to bother him at all. NPR News is saying Putin's approval ratings in Russia have never been higher after taking Crimea.
  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2014
    From Crimea, Putin Trumpets Mother Russia


    By NEIL MacFARQUHARMAY 9, 2014

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/10/world/europe/russia-celebrates-victory-day.html?_r=0

    MOSCOW-master675.jpg

    MOSCOW — Putting his personal seal on the annexation of Crimea, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia traveled on Friday to the naval port of Sevastopol, where he used the anniversary of the victory over ? Germany to assert that Moscow had the right to take over the Black Sea peninsula.

    Over the past decade, Mr. Putin has gradually turned Victory Day into a celebration of resurgent Russian power and nationalism. The visit to Sevastopol, in southwestern Crimea, the historical home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, was a potent manifestation of his goal of reviving Russia as a global power.

    The West reacted to the annexation in March with sanctions against Mr. Putin’s closest circle of advisers and a few significant companies. By going to Sevastopol, the Russian president effectively told Western leaders that Moscow would do as it pleased.

    ---Interesting that France just sold Russia 1.2 billion dollars worth of warships this week too. No wonder Putin doesn't seem worried about what others think.
  • janklow
    janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
    NPR News is saying Putin's approval ratings in Russia have never been higher after taking Crimea.
    wait, you mean the ? he's pitching strictly for domestic approval to district people is working?! weird

  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2014
    janklow wrote: »
    NPR News is saying Putin's approval ratings in Russia have never been higher after taking Crimea.
    wait, you mean the ? he's pitching strictly for domestic approval to district people is working?! weird

    Putin pitching to a domestic audience was no guarantee his ideas would be popular, you may not be aware of this but Russia's actions have caused sanctions to hit Russia's economy and hurt it. Some even say Russia is in a recession now. And DESPITE all that, Russians remain very much on Putin's side. That's no small accomplishment.....
  • janklow
    janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
    Putin pitching to a domestic audience was no guarantee his ideas would be popular, you may not be aware of this but Russia's actions have caused sanctions to hit Russia's economy and hurt it.
    i would be aware of that because i actually read news articles regarding this story.

    Putin's a politician and he plays games like they all do to keep his domestic approval high. right now the sanctions are, theoretically, supposed to squeeze his cronies most of all. but is it the world's greatest achievement to keep Russian public opinion on your side when you play things up for that benefit and basically direct the media to report what you want?

    unrelated story:
    Listening to Russia’s State Media, It’s Hard to Tell Fact From Fiction
    In late April, Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree awarding a special prize to 300 members of the media. The “Order of Merit for the Fatherland” went to reporters who displayed “high professionalism and objectivity in the reporting of events in the Republic of Crimea,” according to the decree.

    Awards from the state imply service to the state. Sure enough, at Moscow’s behest the Russian press has worked hard to justify Putin’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula … and subsequent intimidation of Kiev.

    The press has become a weapon.

    In the state-controlled newspaper Izvestia, writer Alexander Prokhanov heralded the annexation of Crimea as bringing new legitimacy to the Russian government. “The state for the Russian people—the second religion,” Prokhanov wrote.

    This is extreme. But statements of the sort are not unusual in Russia’s major media outlets, which are mostly owned or indirectly controlled by the state. They paper right over the deep complexity of the Ukraine conflict.

    Battles between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces have killed dozens of people in the cities of Mariupol and Slavyansk.

    A referendum is underway in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts to decide on the creation of an independent Donetsk People’s Republic. The polling stations are under the control of armed separatist groups, and there is no evidence of voter rolls—making it impossible to prevent fraud.

    The separatists’ motivations vary. Some are fighting for greater autonomy for Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east. Others hope to create an independent republic that Russia could easily annex. Some want eastern Ukraine to outright split from the rest of the country and formally join Russia.

    But Russian media blithely portrays the fighting as a good versus evil struggle between the dark forces of fascism and a besieged Russia. A narrative that easily justifies military force.

    Twisted narrative

    The Kremlin routinely invokes, well, Nazis to justify Moscow’s military actions. To hear state-backed media tell it, Ukrainian fascists threaten to conquer not only Ukraine, but Russia too.

    In bloodiest battle in Ukraine since the Maidan revolution, a mob in Odessa set fire to a building occupied by pro-Russian activists.

    Russian politicians and pundits pointed to the violence as proof of the rise of fascism … and the media ran with it. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called the events “typical fascism.” He said that the tragedy would not be “swept under the rug,” and that Russia had a “duty not to allow fascism to spread throughout Europe and the world at large”.

    The state-owned RT network hinted at “unknown forces” secretly manipulating a mob of soccer fans to start the violence. Sergei Naryshkin, speaker for the Russian state of Duma, called the fire an act of “genocide.”

    Genocide is systematic. While not to minimize the tragedy, the violence in Odessa was anything but systematic. It was chaos. A genocide of Russian speakers would mean the methodical killing, whole or in part, of the Russian-speaking population.

    But the Russian language is also integrated into Ukrainian society. It’s dominant in media and business, spoken by government officials—including members of the current government—and is the most common language of Ukrainian Internet users.

    According to Naryshkin, the pro-Russians are “federalization activists.” The new leaders of Ukraine are “political adventurists.” Armed actions by separatists are “pro-federalization rallies.”

    Admittedly, claims that fascism is rising in Ukraine do have the veneer of credibility. Some of the activists who toppled former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych hold far-right views, especially the Right Sector group. But the same is true of some pro-Russian militants.

    In that regard, Russian media’s narrative of a Russian people united against fascism are hypocritical.

    The same media outlets warning about the rise of fascism in Ukraine also give a platform to some of Europe’s most prominent far right voices—notably state-owned Channel One.

    Channel One and state-owned network Komsomolskaya Pravda have published glowing interviews and profiles of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who praised the Russian invasion of Crimea.

    Russian neo-fascist theorist Alexander Dugin is also a recurring on-air personality on both Channel One and Komsomolskaya Pravda. The bearded, middle-aged Dugin is one of Russia’s most prominent far-right ideologues. He supports Putin, but is far more radical than the president.

    One of Dugin’s main ideas is that Russia should create an expanded, authoritarian Eurasian land empire to counter the “maritime” empire of the United States. This new Russia will be “historically, religiously, culturally, ethnically, linguistically part of our common Slavic, Orthodox Eurasian world,” he told Komsomolskaya Pravda.

    According to Dugin’s worldview, Russia’s identity is based on moral values found in blood and soil, in contrast to the rootlessness and cosmopolitanism of the West.

    In Dugin’s view, the European Union is a conspiracy of pro-American liberals and ? , tantamount to fascism. Russia’s state-owned media encourages this assertion.
  • janklow
    janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
    the remainder of the above:
    Media controls

    Sometimes Russian media spins itself just to stay alive. The notion of a free press has hard limits in the East—and the Kremlin, especially, employs a variety of tactics to bring wayward journalists to heel.

    A popular method of control is facilitating the hostile takeover of media companies by cronies. This happened to Pavel Durov, the founder of the popular Russian social media site VK.

    Durov claims he was pressured by the Kremlin to turn over user data to the Federal Security Service. After he refused, he was forced out of the company and has since fled Russia.

    Who’s in charge now? Alisher Usmanov and Igor Sechin, two big-time Putin fans.

    More than half of the newspapers and most of the television stations in the country are either owned and operated by the government … or by a parent company with close government ties.

    Gazprom-Media—the entertainment wing of Russia’s state energy company—owns nine radio stations, five television stations, video sharing site RuTube, book publishers and a string of film studios.

    Moscow doesn’t need direct control to manipulate the press. News outlets with views unpopular in the Kremlin often find themselves on the outside looking in.

    Access to press conferences and political figures is hard to come by for media outlets that don’t play ball. The Kremlin leaks stories and information to the agencies that follow the rules and buries difficult news agencies in a nightmare mix of libel suits and tax investigations.

    The popular Website Lentra.ru fired its editor-in-chief Galina Timchenko in March. Her offense? She published an interview with a member of the Ukrainian nationalist party.

    TV Rain was the last independent news station left in Russia before they criticized Putin on the air. The channel subsequently lost both the lease on its headquarters and its cable distribution deals.

    Putin is reining in the Internet, as well.

    This month, he signed a law requiring blogs with more than 3,000 regular readers to register with the government. Part of that registration process involves disclosing the bloggers’ real names—and requires registrants to stand behind the accuracy of what they publish.

    Any search engine or hosting company that lists the blog must also keep a log of published material on a server—on Russian soil—for a rolling period of six months.

    If all else fails, ornery reporters have a habit of straight up dying. Nor do those reporters receive awards from the state.
  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2014
    Yes, Russia is a country that has horrible internet laws and laws regarding journalists, I will not deny this. But let's not pretend American journalism isn't filled with huge flaws either. The American media rarely tells Americans about the Israeli apartheid for example, and its news often sugar coats just how bad Israel's policies are fueling the flames of terrorism every single day.

    I'm not excusing Russia's horrible state controlled media, and yes I'm sure it's part of the reason Putin is so popular in Russia now. But Russians are a tech savvy people, they know how to get around all the propaganda. There were protests against Putin in the tens of thousands just a few months ago, so there are ways Russians can get past the fascist media there. With the economy suffering in Russia from the sanctions, it's still a decent victory for Putin to still be able to hold his nation in firm support of what he is doing.
  • janklow
    janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
    The American media rarely tells Americans about the Israeli apartheid for example, and its news often sugar coats just how bad Israel's policies are fueling the flames of terrorism every single day.
    phenomenal. however, in this thread, we are discussing Russia/Ukraine. are you capable of discussing this topic WITHOUT resorting to "but but but the US does bad things unrelated to this topic?"
    I'm not excusing Russia's horrible state controlled media-
    yes, you ARE excusing it. you once again refuse to say anything negative bad about Russia without IMMEDIATELY saying "yeah well THE US IS TERRIBLE. ALSO ISRAEL IS TERRIBLE." Israel actually may be fairly said to have absolutely NOTHING to do with this issue.

    also, i don't know that it's the best logic to say Russia media is terrible BUT THE US IS WORSE and anyway, Russians are tech-savvy. Americans are also tech-savvy. so if you're attacking the media, hand-waving away what Russia does with "whatever, they'll get the truth somehow" means you should be doing the same thing when you talk about American media.
  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    janklow wrote: »
    The American media rarely tells Americans about the Israeli apartheid for example, and its news often sugar coats just how bad Israel's policies are fueling the flames of terrorism every single day.
    phenomenal. however, in this thread, we are discussing Russia/Ukraine. are you capable of discussing this topic WITHOUT resorting to "but but but the US does bad things unrelated to this topic?"
    I'm not excusing Russia's horrible state controlled media-
    yes, you ARE excusing it. you once again refuse to say anything negative bad about Russia without IMMEDIATELY saying "yeah well THE US IS TERRIBLE. ALSO ISRAEL IS TERRIBLE." Israel actually may be fairly said to have absolutely NOTHING to do with this issue.

    also, i don't know that it's the best logic to say Russia media is terrible BUT THE US IS WORSE and anyway, Russians are tech-savvy. Americans are also tech-savvy. so if you're attacking the media, hand-waving away what Russia does with "whatever, they'll get the truth somehow" means you should be doing the same thing when you talk about American media.

    Ok let's focus 100% on Russia and Ukraine then....

    Russia has a horrible state controlled media and it discourages dissenting opinion from the govt, happy? The propaganda from both the non-elected govt of Ukraine and Russia are both intense. Either way, people in eastern Ukraine really hate the non elected govt of Ukraine, Ukraine has to find a way to keep those pro-Russians happy, otherwise civil war is coming in no time
  • janklow
    janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
    Either way, people in eastern Ukraine really hate the non elected govt of Ukraine, Ukraine has to find a way to keep those pro-Russians happy, otherwise civil war is coming in no time
    actually, if you look at the polling, it's not even pro-Russians; you get most people saying they want to stay in Ukraine AND they have an issue with the current government. so there's definitely an issue there that's not helping the situation.

    the problem is that Ukraine needs to get to a real election ASAP while simultaneously trying to deal with Russia ? around (and i am just going to say that i am pointing the finger at Russia in this regard because they're the ones encouraging basically anyone with a separatist label).
  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2014
    janklow wrote: »
    Either way, people in eastern Ukraine really hate the non elected govt of Ukraine, Ukraine has to find a way to keep those pro-Russians happy, otherwise civil war is coming in no time
    actually, if you look at the polling, it's not even pro-Russians; you get most people saying they want to stay in Ukraine AND they have an issue with the current government. so there's definitely an issue there that's not helping the situation.

    the problem is that Ukraine needs to get to a real election ASAP while simultaneously trying to deal with Russia ? around (and i am just going to say that i am pointing the finger at Russia in this regard because they're the ones encouraging basically anyone with a separatist label).

    Yeah Ukraine has a serious problem in its hands, many people there don't respect the non elected govt and deeply fear what life is going to be like in Ukraine without the huge Russian discounts on gas. Vladimir Putin today said Ukraine must pay in CASH any future oil or gas deals that Ukraine wants from Russia. It looks like the non elected govt shot itself in the foot overthrowing the pro-Russian president 3 months ago.....more revolutions will spark up in UKraine if Putin keeps his word, Ukraine can barely afford anything even now

    http://news.yahoo.com/putin-says-ukraine-must-pay-cash-gas-june-131049328.html

    MOSCOW (AP) — Russia has ratcheted up pressure on Ukraine, with President Vladimir Putin saying in a letter released Thursday that it only will deliver gas to its struggling neighbor next month if it pays in advance.
    Related Stories

    Putin first warned of the move in April in a letter to European leaders whose nations are customers of Russian state-controlled Gazprom natural gas giant. He said that Moscow would switch to pre-paid deliveries if Ukraine, which serves as a major conduit for Russian gas supplies to Europe, failed to start settling its mounting gas debt.

    In the second letter released by the Kremlin Thursday, Putin said that a meeting involving Russian, Ukrainian and the European Union officials has failed to settle the issue. He said that Ukraine's gas debt to Russia has kept rising and reached $3.5 billion, even though Ukraine has received $3.2 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

    "Given the circumstances, the Russian company has issued an advance invoice for gas deliveries to Ukraine, which is completely in accordance with the contract, and after June 1 gas deliveries will be limited to the amount prepaid by the Ukrainian company," Putin said in the letter.

    --YEP, Ukraine is ? . Good job non elected govt of Ukraine lol. Biting the hand that gave you guys cheap oil and natural gas for decades is REALLLLLY paying off now, isn't it?

  • kingblaze84
    kingblaze84 Members Posts: 14,288 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2014
    No need to fear Ukraine, Joe Biden's son is now working for a UKRAINIAN OIL AND GAS COMPANY WITH TIES TO AMERICA.....

    http://www.businessinsider.com/hunter-biden-joes-son-ukraine-gas-company-burisma-holdings-2014-5

    Hunter Biden, the youngest son of Vice President Joe Biden, has been appointed to the board of directors of Ukraine's largest private-gas producer.

    The company, Burisma Holdings, announced Biden's appointment on its website Tuesday. Burisma said Biden would be the new head of the company's legal unit.

    The White House shot down any notion of a conflict of interest with Hunter Biden's appointment. In a statement provided to Business Insider, Joe Biden spokesperson Kendra Barkoff said Hunter's appointment did not constitute an endorsement by the vice president.


    --First ? Cheney and his ties to Halliburton in Iraq, now this LOL.....well, at least we see the real reason why America is so interested in Ukraine now. May the fighting over natural gas continue....

  • janklow
    janklow Members, Moderators Posts: 8,613 Regulator
    edited May 2014
    --YEP, Ukraine is ? . Good job non elected govt of Ukraine lol. Biting the hand that gave you guys cheap oil and natural gas for decades is REALLLLLY paying off now, isn't it?
    why do you say "decades" when we're only a little over 20 years since the USSR went away?
    which is another thing you may be overlooking with some of these former SSRs: they kind of resent the way Russia acts towards them at times. this is why they "bite the hand that feeds." see also Russia/Ukraine historical events like ... oh, let's say the Holodomor.

    of course, simultaneously, Russia can't run its military without goods from Ukraine, so...